Edison Investment Research Limited: Context Therapeutics (CNTX) - Initiation: Women's oncology play with a novel pipeline

London, UK, 25 February 2022

Context Therapeutics (CNTX) - Initiation: Women's oncology play with a novel pipeline

Context Therapeutics is a Nasdaq-listed biopharma company developing novel therapeutics focused on women's oncology indications. Lead program onapristone extended release (ONA-XR) is a potential first-in-class progesterone receptor (PR) antagonist being evaluated in several mid-stage clinical programs in advanced breast, endometrial and ovarian cancer, all areas with significant unmet need. In-licensing a bi-specific monoclonal antibody, CLDN6Xcd3, in April 2021 has added another (preclinical) novel compound to the pipeline. With multiple data readouts expected in 2022, we foresee several inflection points in the coming months. We initiate coverage with a valuation of $134.9m or $8.45/share.

Our current valuation (using a risk-adjusted net present value model, NPV) is wholly attributable to ONA-XR's four programs under clinical development. CLDN6Xcd3 could add further upside on successful clinical transition. Estimated end-Q421 cash of c $48m should extend the runway into 2024, but we project another $110m raise (shown as illustrative debt) before reaching profitability in 2027.

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