High Home Prices, Mortgage Rates Weighing on Housing Sentiment

Year-over-Year Jump in Interest Rates Amplifying Perceptions of Unaffordability for Buyers and 'Lock-in Effect' for Sellers

WASHINGTON, Sept. 7, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index^® (HPSI) decreased 0.8 points in August to 62.0, its sixth consecutive monthly decline, as high home prices and elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on consumer sentiment, particularly home-selling sentiment. Despite the relatively small aggregate change, the HPSI experienced significant volatility among four of its six components, including those measuring consumer perceptions of homebuying and home-selling conditions, as well as expectations regarding the future direction of home prices and mortgage rates.

Month over month, consumers reported that home-selling conditions have worsened – although that component remains strongly positive on net. Consumers also reported that homebuying conditions have improved, but 73% continue to report that it's a "bad time to buy." For the first time since the start of the pandemic, consumers are neutral, on net, about the future path of home prices, with an increasing share this month reporting that prices will decline. Meanwhile, a greater share reported the expectation that mortgage rates will decline, even though a majority continue to believe that mortgage rates will go up over the next 12 months. Year over year, the full index is down 13.7 points.

"The share of consumers expecting home prices to go down over the next year increased substantially in August. Accompanying this, HPSI respondents reported a significant decrease in home-selling sentiment," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist.  "We also observed a large decline in consumers reporting high home prices as the primary reason for it being a good time to sell a home, suggesting that expectations of slowing or declining home prices have begun to negatively affect selling sentiment. Conversely, lower home prices would obviously be welcome news for potential first-time homebuyers, who are likely feeling the combined affordability constraints of the high home price and high mortgage rate environment. In fact, the survey's 'ease of getting a mortgage' component dropped to an all-time low among this typically younger demographic (i.e., 18- to 34-year-olds). With home prices expected to moderate over the forecast horizon and economic uncertainty heightened, both homebuyers and home-sellers may be incentivized to remain on the sidelines – homebuyers anticipating home price declines and potential home-sellers not keen to give up their lower, fixed mortgage rate – contributing to a further cooling in home sales through the end of the year."

Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in August by 0.8 points to 62.0. The HPSI is down 13.7 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.

• Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased from 17% to 22%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from 76% to 73%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 8 percentage points month over month.
  
  
• Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 67% to 59%, while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell increased from 27% to 35%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 16 percentage points month over month.
  
  
• Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 39% to 33%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down increased from 30% to 33%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 26% to 28%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say home prices will go up decreased 9 percentage points month over month.
  
  
• Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months increased from 6% to 11%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 67% to 61%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 21% to 25%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 11 percentage points month over month.
  
  
• Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months increased from 78% to 79%, while the percentage who say they are concerned decreased from 22% to 21%. As a result, the net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job increased 2 percentage points month over month.
  
  
• Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased from 24% to 25%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 13% to 15%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same decreased from 61% to 59%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased 1 percentage point month over month.

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey (NHS) polled approximately 1,000 respondents via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, home and rental price changes, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence. Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). For more information, please see the Technical Notes. Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The August 2022 National Housing Survey was conducted between August 1, 2022 and August 22, 2022. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. Interviews were conducted by ReconMR on behalf of PSB Insights and in coordination with Fannie Mae.

For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.

To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.

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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

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