Issuer: CB MezzCAP Limited Partnership
....EUR137.8M (current outstanding amount EUR 106.3M) A Notes, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Feb 18, 2011 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
CB MezzCAP is a German SME CLO referencing a static portfolio of German profit participations ("Genussrechte"). The scheduled maturity falls in January 2013. Some of the 'Genussrechte' obligations in the portfolio have certain features of equity (type A obligations). These include potential deferral of interest and principal payments subject to financial performance of the obligor. Such obligations can also be written down and may extend redemption beyond the legal final maturity of the transaction (October 2036). These obligations make up 52% of the performing pool. Type A obligations which have not redeemed par plus accrued interest by the legal maturity of the CDO transaction will expire and lead to a loss for CB MezzCAP Limited Partnership.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating actions are driven by continuing and worse than expected credit deterioration observed in the underlying pool.
The deterioration is reflected in an increase in the number of defaults and the resulting decrease in the overcollateralization levels ("OC levels") of the rated classes. The actions also reflect the anticipated further deterioration suggested by the most recent information available, as the pool obligors are expected to refinance their debt in the coming months, specifically by the transaction scheduled maturity date, 25th January 2013.
Defaults and impairments in the transaction increased to 14 obligors, totalling EUR 89 million (approximately 44.6% of the initial pool), compared to 12 obligors, totalling EUR 75 million (approximately 37.6% of the initial pool) at the last rating action in February 2011. Deterioration in the portfolio is also indicated by the comments reported in the Investment Report, dated 25 Oct 2012, by the portfolio manager who monitors the individual issuers in the portfolio. It is noted that one company with a loan value of EUR 5 million is going through restructuring, with further two companies with total loans value of EUR 11.5 million have notified the issuer that they will not be able to repay in full at the scheduled repayment in 2013.
In the process of determining the final rating, Moody's took into account the results of a number of sensitivity analysis:
(1) Assuming all 3 assets in the credit event category defaulted with no recovery, the overcollateralization ratios for Class A would be 85.6%.
The overcollateralization ratio above is consistent with today's rating action.
Moody's notes that this transaction is subject to a high level of macroeconomic uncertainty, which could negatively impact the ratings of the notes, as evidenced by uncertainties of credit conditions in the general economy, especially as 100% of the portfolio is exposed to obligors located in Germany. Sources of additional performance uncertainties are described below:
(1) Refinancing risk: In reaching its ratings decisions, Moody's took into account the elevated potential for refinancing difficulties likely to be faced by a substantial number of the weaker obligors over the coming months to scheduled maturity. This risk has been assessed primarily from qualitative information on individual obligors provided in the latest investor report and by the investment services provider and recovery manager.
(2) Jump to default risk: The non granularity of the portfolio exposes the transaction to higher jump to default risk. Currently the five largest obligors, excluding 3 assets in the credit event and watch list category, comprise approximately EUR 39.5 million or 43.4% of the performing portfolio totalling EUR 91 million. After excluding terminated or insolvent obligors, the total number of portfolio obligors is 20. In order to measure the risk associated with low granularity, Moody's conducted breakeven analyses by computing the number of borrower defaults that could be sustained before hitting a given class of notes.
In its analysis, Moody's applied stresses including an increase in the default probability of each obligor to reflect cyclical economic stress and future default expectations based on past pool performance, name specific forward looking adjustments. These assumptions reflect Moody's expectations that default rates for the pool is likely to remain at elevated level given the general economic outlook. In addition, due to the subordinated position of the loans in the obligors' capital structure, Moody's assumes a zero recovery rate upon asset default.
The action relies on financial data received annually for a majority of obligors in the pool from the end of 2011. This financial data was used in the RiskCalc model, an econometric model developed by Moody's KMV in order to assess the credit quality of obligors in the pool. The results obtained from the RiskCalc model have been translated to Moody's rating scale and adjusted by in order to reflect reliance on stale financial data, poor pool performance and lack of granularity. Moody's also incorporated information provided by the manager in the latest investor report to account for more recent information on the performance of the underlying obligors.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating CDOs of SMEs in Europe" published in February 2007, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in June 2011. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Other factors used in this rating are described in "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Securities in Default" published in November 2009.
No additional cash flow analysis or stress scenarios have been conducted as the decision to downgrade the notes was derived from the observed credit deterioration of the underlying pool and resulting reduction in OC levels.
In addition to the quantitative factors, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural protections in each transaction, the recent deal performance in the current market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation features, and the potential for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from other Moody's analytical groups, market factors, and judgments regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the transactions, may influence the final rating decision.
On 21 August 2012, Moody's released a Request for Comment seeking market feedback on proposed adjustments to its modelling assumptions. These adjustments are designed to account for the impact of rapid and significant country credit deterioration on structured finance transactions. If the adjusted approach is implemented as proposed, the rating of the notes affected by today rating action may be negatively affected. See "Approach to Assessing the Impact of a Rapid Country Credit Deterioration on Structured Finance Transactions", (http://www.moodys.com/research/Approach-to-Assessing-the-Impact-of-a-Rapid-Country-Credit--PBS_SF294880) for further details regarding the implications of the proposed methodology changes on Moody's ratings.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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Branimir Jovanovic Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Neelam S. Desai Senior Vice President Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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