A Recession Model That's Never Been Wrong Just Hit 49%. That Was Before the Iran War.

The first few months of 2026 have been difficult for investors. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is down 4.6% (it was down nearly 8% before a partial recovery this week), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has fallen further, down 7.1% (it was down more than 11% before a partial recovery).There's a reason to believe the losses could get worse.Moody's just released its latest recession odds: 49%. That's just one percentage point below the threshold rating that has correctly indicated a recession every time in 80 years of backtested data. Even worse, that rating came out before the start of the war in Iran.Continue readingWeiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei MotleyFool Weiter zum vollständigen Artikel bei MotleyFool