Comerica Bank's Texas Index Trending Up

DALLAS, Feb. 26, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index increased in December to 141.5. December's index reading was 46 points, or 48 percent, above the index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 139.1 points for all of 2019, 3.9 points above the average for 2018. November's index reading was 141.0.

The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index increased for the fourth consecutive month in December. The index has increased in 15 out of the last 17 months, indicating a steady expansion of the Texas economy. The index results were mixed in December, with five components improving and four slipping. The improving components in December were nonfarm employment, housing starts, house prices, total state trade and hotel occupancy. The components that slipped in December were unemployment insurance claims (inverted), industrial electricity demand, the Texas drilling rig count and state sales tax revenue. We expect labor market indicators to remain mostly positive for Texas in 2020. Housing-related indicators also look strong at the end of 2019 and into early 2020. Industrial indicators, including industrial electricity demand and the rig count, will continue to be challenged by the low oil price environment. We expect global oil demand to remain soft through the first half of 2020 as Asian and European economies lose momentum. The coronavirus outbreak in Asia appears to be spreading globally. This will have an impact on energy and other globally connected industries in Texas. The Center for Disease Control has issued a warning that they expect to see more cases of coronavirus infection in the U.S. We assume that Texas is included in that warning.

The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in Texas, strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking center network throughout Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank