Moody's has also downgraded Banco CEISS's senior subordinated debt and hybrid instruments to C and C (hyb) respectively. The downgrade of the bank's junior instruments reflects the very high losses expected for such debt, as the government plans to impose losses on holders of these instruments, which is a condition for receiving support from the Spanish government.
Banco CEISS is categorised as Group 2 institutions in the restructuring of the Spanish banking sector (under the Memorandum of Understanding - MoU - signed by the Spanish government and the euro area members on 20 July 2012), which indicates that it depends on public support to remain adequately capitalised. The other banks in Group 2 are Liberbank (Ba3 senior debt and deposit ratings; BFSR E/BCA caa1, all ratings on review for downgrade), Banco Mare Nostrum (not rated) and Caja3 (not rated).
RATINGS RATIONALE
--- STANDALONE CREDIT STRENGTH AND LONG-TERM RATINGS
The downgrade of Banco CEISS's debt and deposit rating reflects (1) the further deterioration of its standalone credit profile; and (2) the risk for senior creditors now that uncertainties about the effective completion of the merger with Unicaja Banco (Unicaja, Ba1 senior debt and deposit ratings; BFSR D/BCA ba2, all ratings on review for downgrade) have materially increased, since it has been delayed until Banco CEISS accomplishes a restructuring plan.
The four-notch downgrade of Banco CEISS's standalone credit assessment to E/caa3 from E+/b2 follows the announcement made by Bank of Spain on 31 October 2012 that the bank will require government assistance to recapitalise as part of its individual restructuring plan. This plan was presented on a standalone basis, outside of the scope of the group formed with Unicaja. Previously, Banco CEISS was expected to benefit from the merger with (and support thus received from) Unicaja, which would have prevented the need of receiving public support.
The merger of these two banks was approved in September 2011, but it has been repeatedly delayed as a result of Banco CEISS's very weak credit profile. Although the merger has not been formally cancelled by either bank, it is likely to be further postponed until Banco CEISS has accomplished its restructuring plan.
In the evaluation performed by Oliver Wyman, Banco CEISS presented a capital shortfall of EUR2 billion (representing 8.7% of RWAs), which will force it to resort to public-sector support to recapitalise as the bank does not have sufficient capacity to raise capital through private means. Consistent with Moody's definitions, the lower standalone credit assessments reflect the rating agency's view that Banco CEISS has speculative intrinsic, or standalone, financial strength and is subject to very high credit risk absent any possibility of extraordinary support from the government. This view also incorporates the bank's weak profitability and insufficient internal capital generation capacity and the high reliance on ECB funding.
--- SUBORDINATED DEBT AND HYBRID RATINGS
Moody's downgrade of the subordinated debt and hybrid instruments of Banco CEISS reflects the fact that losses are likely to be imposed on subordinated and hybrid creditors of this bank. The regulatory framework (RD 24/2012 and the MoU signed on 20 July 2012) contemplates that such "burden-sharing" will be applied to banks that are deemed to require public-sector assistance.
The rating actions taken today on the junior instruments of Banco CEISS are consistent with the actions taken on 5 October 2012 on Group 1 banks (please see "http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-takes-actions-on-4-Spanish-banking-groups-due-to--PR_255526";). The downgrade follows the recent publication of the banks that were to be categorised in Group 2, announced by Bank of Spain on 31 October 2012. In its announcement, the Bank of Spain made public the assessment of the recapitalisation plans that the banks had submitted with capital needs resulting from the independent stress test exercise made on 28 September 2012. As a consequence of the analysis of these plans, Bank of Spain published that Banco Mare Nostrum, Caja 3, Liberbank and Banco CEISS will need to resort to public support within the framework of their capitalisation processes, thus falling into the Group 2 category.
Ratings at C are applied to debt instruments that are typically in default, with little prospect for recovery of principal or interest. The C rating also reflects an estimated recovery rate of less than 35%, which is commensurate with the large discount at which most of these instruments are currently trading in the secondary market.
OUTLOOK AND REVIEW STATUS
Moody´s has placed on review with direction uncertain Banco CEISS's E/caa3, reflecting the uncertainties involved with the merger of Unicaja and Banco CEISS. The rating of the combined entity might be higher than its current ratings or lower, depending on (1) the completion or termination of the merger process with Unicaja Banco; and (2) the impact of the restructuring plan that it has to undertake to cover its sizable capital deficit.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
Downwards pressure on the bank's ratings might develop if (1) operating conditions worsen beyond Moody's current expectations, i.e., a broader economic recession beyond our current GDP decline forecasts of -1.7% for 2012 and -1% for 2013; especially given that this is likely to result in asset-quality deterioration exceeding Moody's current expectations; and/or (2) if pressures on market-funding intensify or central bank funding becomes more restrictive.
Upwards pressure on the ratings might develop upon the successful implementation of the government's plan to stabilise the banking system, to the extent that the bank's resilience to the challenging prevailing conditions improves. Likewise, any improvement in the standalone strength of the bank arising from stronger earnings, improved funding conditions or the work-out of asset-quality challenges could result in rating upgrades.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entities or their related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Maria Jose Mori Vice President - Senior Analyst Financial Institutions Group Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A. Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta Madrid 28002 Spain JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Johannes Wassenberg MD - Banking Financial Institutions Group JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Espana, S.A. Calle Principe de Vergara, 131, 6 Planta Madrid 28002 Spain JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED,DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.
All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error negligent or otherwise or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.
NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.
MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."
Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.
This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.