New York, November 28, 2012 --
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the City of Detroit's (MI) General Obligation Unlimited Tax (GOULT) and Certificates of Participation (COPs) ratings to Caa1 from B3, and has also downgraded the city's General Obligation Limited Tax (GOLT) rating to Caa2 from Caa1. These downgrades reflect the city's ongoing precariously narrow cash position and a weakened state oversight framework following the repeal of Public Act 4 (PA 4). The city's GO, COPs and GOLT ratings have been removed from review for possible downgrade and the outlook has been revised to negative. The negative outlook on the GO, COPS and GOLT ratings is based on the rising possibility that the city could file for bankruptcy or default on an obligation over the next 12 to 24 months, the general uncertainty of state oversight as challenges to Public Act 72 (PA 72) persist following the repeal of PA 4, and the city's ongoing inability to implement reforms necessary to regain financial stability.
Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded the ratings for the Detroit Water and Sewage Enterprise Revenue debt one notch to Baa3 (Senior Lien) and Ba1 (Second Lien) as the rising risk of a city bankruptcy filing brings ongoing uncertainty regarding the treatment of these securities in the event of a filing. Ratings for the Detroit Water and Sewage Enterprise Revenue Bonds have been removed from review for possible downgrade and the outlook has been revised to negative. The negative outlook for the water and sewer debt is based on the increasing possibility that the city could file for bankruptcy over the next 12 to 24 months.
Strengths
-Focused and dedicated executive management team supported by a strong working relationship with the Governor's office
-State oversight provided by Michigan Public Act 72 and FSA
-Escrowed bond proceeds available following successful completion of the MFA financing deal
Challenges
- Weak liquidity profile, requiring active cash flow management techniques, including debt refinancing, to meet operating needs
-Ongoing state oversight of the city's finances which may result in appointment of an emergency financial manager, which is the first step to filing for bankruptcy
-Challenges to timely implementation of restructuring provisions outlined in the Financial Stability Agreement; ongoing political instability
-Potential termination payment due for swap agreements issued in conjunction with Certificates of Participation
Outlooks
The negative outlook on the GO, COPS and GOLT ratings is based on the increasing possibility that the city could file for bankruptcy or default on an obligation over the next 12 to 24 months, the general uncertainty of state oversight as challenges to PA 72 persist following the repeal of PA 4, and the city's ongoing inability to implement reforms necessary to regain financial stability. The negative outlook for the water and sewer debt is based on the rising possibility that the city could file for bankruptcy on an obligation over the next 12 to 24 months.
What Could Change the GO, GOLT and COPs Ratings -- UP (or removal of the negative outlook)
- Material operating surpluses, achieved through structurally balanced financial results that will carry forward to future fiscal years
- A material improvement in the city's unrestricted cash and investment position such that the city continues to be less dependent on cash flow borrowing
-Improved liquidity and cash management such that the city's ability to ensure timely debt service payments are not in question
-Removal of uncertainty surrounding state oversight legislative authority
What Could Change the GO, GOLT and COPs Ratings -- DOWN
- Revenue challenges that continue to exceed expenditure (and alternate revenue) solutions
- Continued operating deficits leading to heightened cash-flow weakness- Further increase of the city's debt leverage
- Increase in likelihood of either a bankruptcy filing or plan to default on debt obligations
-Elimination of legislative authority for state oversight/assistance
What Could Change the Water Rating -- UP (or removal of the negative outlook)
-Statutory or other legal action to definitively remove the system's assets from the estate of the city
- Stabilization or reversal of the city's trajectory towards bankruptcy
- Removal of statutory authority for the city to file for bankruptcy
What Could Change the Water Rating -- DOWN
-Bankruptcy filing, or increasing likelihood of a filing, by the City of Detroit
-Weak operating performance resulting in decreased debt service coverage levels
-Further increased debt ratio
-Weakening of the service area through economic forces or wholesale contract changes
What Could Change the Sewage Rating -- UP (or removal of the negative outlook)
-Statutory or other legal action to definitively remove the system's assets from the estate of the city
-Stabilization or reversal of the city's trajectory towards bankruptcy
- Removal of statutory authority for the city to file for bankruptcy
What Could Change the Sewage Rating - DOWN
-Bankruptcy filing, or increasing likelihood of a filing, by the City of Detroit
-Weak operating performance resulting in decreased debt service coverage levels
-Further increased debt ratio
-Weakening of the service area through economic forces or wholesale contract changes
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGIES USED
The principal methodology used in this rating was General Obligation Bonds Issued by U.S. Local Governments published in October 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
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Genevieve NolanAsst Vice President - Analyst Public Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.100 N Riverside Plaza Suite 2220 Chicago, IL 60606 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Henrietta Chang VP - Senior Credit Officer Public Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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