/nwsys/www/images/PBM_1061868 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CREDIT OPINION 27 March 2017 Update RATINGS Deutsche Postbank AG Domicile Germany Long Term Debt (P)Baa2 Type Senior Unsecured MTN - Dom Curr Outlook Not Assigned Long Term Deposit A3 Type LT Bank Deposits - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Analyst Contacts Goetz Thurm, CFA 49-69-70730-773 VP-Senior Analyst goetz.thurm@moodys.com Alexander Hendricks, CFA 49-69-70730-779 Associate Managing Director - Banking alexander.hendricks@moodys.com Carola Schuler 49-69-70730-766 Managing Director - Banking carola.schuler@moodys.com Deutsche Postbank AG Update to Reflect Recent Affirmation of Ratings and Change in Outlook to Stable from Negative Summary Rating Rationale Deutsche Postbank AG's (Postbank) long-term A3 deposit and (P)Baa2 debt ratings reflect (1) its ba1 BCA; (2) its ba1 Adjusted BCA, which incorporates “very high” affiliate support from its ultimate parent Deutsche Bank AG (DB; A3 stable/Baa2 stable, ba1)1; (3) the result of DB's Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis, which takes into account the severity of loss faced by different liability classes in resolution and results in three/one notches of rating uplift to Postbank's deposits/debt; and (4) moderate government support as the subsidiary of globally systemically relevant DB, resulting in one notch of government support uplift. Postbank's Counterparty Risk Assessments are assigned at A3(cr)/P-2(cr). Postbank's standalone BCA of baa3 is constrained at the ba1 BCA of DB. This reflects Postbank's role as an integral part of DB, following the recent decision to retain and fully integrate it into the group. As a more closely integrated domestic subsidiary, we assume the creditworthiness of both, Postbank and its parent to be aligned, which is also reflected in applying the same resolution perimeter under our Advanced LGF analysis. Postbank's standalone BCA is supported by (1) its progress in raising its capitalisation both in absolute and risk-weighted terms; (2) improving asset quality due to its large low-risk mortgage book and reducing higher-risk non-core assets; albeit large concentrations particularly in commercial real estate lending pose tail risks in an adverse scenario; and (3) its strong funding profile. Postbank's weak recurring earnings capacity represents a key credit weakness. Exhibit 1 Rating Scorecard Deutsche Postbank AG - Key Financial Ratios Source: Moody's Financial Metrics MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Credit Strengths » Strong funding profile, which benefits from broad access to retail deposits » Improved asset quality in the benign operating environment, but concentrations in residential real estate, a growing consumer lending book and a sizable commercial real estate franchise could represent asset tail risks in the future » Embeddedness in DB provides subordination and results in a three-notch uplift from the Adjusted BCA for deposits Credit Challenges » Improved capitalisation is adequate in comparison to risk-weighted assets, but remains weak in absolute terms » Sustainable profitability remains weak on an absolute and relative basis (versus German peers), with the low interest rate environment continuing to provide headwinds Rating Outlook » The outlook on Postbank's A3 long-term deposit ratings is stable, reflecting our expectation that (1) the standalone credit profile, as expressed in the ba1 BCA, and the final ratings of its ultimate parent DB will remain stable; and (2) Postbank's standalone baa3 financial profile will not weaken by more than two notches (a one notch deterioration would not result in any lower ratings given the ba1 BCA constraint from DB). Factors that Could Lead to an Upgrade » An upgrade of Postbank's ratings could be prompted by a higher BCA and is subject to an upgrade of the BCA of DB, which currently caps the BCA of Postbank by one notch. » Postbank’s long-term debt ratings may also be upgraded due to changes in DB’s liability structure that lead to a lowering of the loss-given-failure for this debt class. The same does not apply to Postbank's long-term deposit ratings because they already benefit from three notches of rating uplift from our Advanced LGF analysis, the highest possible. » Postbank’s short-term program and deposit ratings may be upgraded if the bank’s long-term deposit rating is upgraded, because both short-term debt and deposit ratings of German banks reference a long-term rating level consistent with the deposit rating when determining the short-term rating. Factors that Could Lead to a Downgrade » Postbank's debt and deposit ratings could be downgraded in the case of (1) a downgrade of its BCA; (2) a decrease in uplift, resulting from our Advanced LGF analysis; and/or (3) a decline in the probability of government support being made available to Postbank. » Downward pressure could be exerted on Postbank's BCA from a downgrade of DB’s BCA, which would likely result in a downgrade of Postbank's long-term debt and deposit ratings. In the absence of downward rating pressure originating from DB’s BCA, Postbank’s BCA is unlikely to be downgraded because the bank’s unconstrained BCA exceeds that of DB by one notch. However, Postbank’s unconstrained BCA may come under pressure upon evidence of weakening operating performance beyond what we currently expect given the persistently low-interest-rate environment, and/or failure to sustain the recent improvement of the bank's capital and leverage ratios. » Postbank's long-term debt and deposit ratings could also be downgraded if changes in DB’s liability structure resulted in a higher loss-given-failure for individual debt classes. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 27 March 2017 Deutsche Postbank AG: Update to Reflect Recent Affirmation of Ratings and Change in Outlook to Stable from Negative MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS » The probability of government support for Postbank may be lowered if we were to decide to no longer assume government support for DB, which is currently highly unlikely given the latter's status as a Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB). Key Indicators Exhibit 2 Deutsche Postbank AG (Consolidated Financials) [1] 6-162 12-152 12-142 12-133 12-123 Avg. Total Assets (EUR billion) 147.0 149.8 154.6 159.6 181.1 -5.14 Total Assets (USD billion) 163.3 162.7 187.0 220.0 238.8 -9.14 Tangible Common Equity (EUR billion) 4.8 4.9 4.2 4.1 3.4 8.44 Tangible Common Equity (USD billion) 5.3 5.3 5.0 5.6 4.5 3.94 Problem Loans / Gross Loans (%) 1.9 2.0 2.7 2.9 3.3 2.55 Tangible Common Equity / Risk Weighted Assets (%) 10.9 10.9 9.5 9.1 6.3 10.46 Problem Loans / (Tangible Common Equity + Loan Loss Reserve) (%) 32.8 32.9 47.2 52.4 67.3 46.55 Net Interest Margin (%) 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.65 PPI / Average RWA (%) 0.5 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 0.96 Net Income / Tangible Assets (%) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.25 Cost / Income Ratio (%) 93.1 86.2 88.6 83.0 79.3 86.05 Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 11.0 12.0 13.5 14.5 12.9 12.85 Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets (%) 30.0 32.1 35.0 35.1 35.9 33.65 Gross loans / Due to customers (%) 84.4 82.6 81.3 84.1 80.7 82.65 [1] All figures and ratios are adjusted using Moody's standard adjustments [2] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in; IFRS [3] Basel II; IFRS [4] IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation [5] Compound Annual Growth Rate based on IFRS reporting periods [6] Basel III - fully-loaded or transitional phase-in & IFRS reporting periods have been used for average calculation Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Recent Developments On 5 March 2017, Postbank's ultimate parent DB announced a €8 billion raise of common equity and major course corrections to its 2020 strategic plan. In this context, DB communicated its intention to retain and fully integrate Postbank rather than to divest it, as was previously planned and first announced in April 2015. According to DB, the integration of Postbank and DB's Private, Wealth & Commercial Clients segment will commence in earnest in 2018, following an in-depth planning phase. On 8 March 2017, as a result of DB's updated strategic plan, we raised our affiliate support assumptions factored into Postbank's ratings to “very high” from “moderate” previously. However, the higher assumed support level has not resulted in any uplift to Postbank's ba1 BCA, due to the weaker standalone credit profile of its parent DB, which also constraints Postbank's BCA by one notch, reflecting a common domestic resolution perimeter. Given the unchanged Adjusted BCA and no change in LGF or government support uplift, we affirmed all ratings of Postbank at their prior levels. Concurrently, we changed the outlook on Postbank's long-term deposit ratings from negative to stable, which aligned Postbank's deposit outlook with that of DB once again, and follows the fact that institutional depositors will now continue to benefit from ample subordination provided by senior and subordinated debt in our Advanced LGF analysis, which is based on the liability structure of DB. The previous negative outlook on Postbank's deposit ratings reflected our view that a deconsolidation of Postbank from DB would have increased the loss-given-failure that institutional depositors would have been exposed to in case of resolution without a prior adjustment of Postbank's standalone liability structure. Detailed Rating Considerations Strong Funding Profile Benefits from Broad Access to Retail Deposits Postbank benefits from a sizable retail deposit base and overall client liabilities of €118.3 billion as of September 2016, covering 80% of the bank's €147.4 billion in reported total assets. In light of its ongoing deleveraging, we expect its liquid asset portfolio to remain in excess of its wholesale liabilities. Postbank's strong access to retail deposits results from its position as a leading checking account provider in the German retail market. However, following the increase in fees for checking accounts, announced in August 2016 and effective as of November 2016, the 3 27 March 2017 Deutsche Postbank AG: Update to Reflect Recent Affirmation of Ratings and Change in Outlook to Stable from Negative MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS number of checking accounts started to decline somewhat from 5.3 million at the end of June 2016 to 5.2 million at the end of September 2016. In the 18 months leading up to June 2016, the bank had registered strong demand deposit inflow of €5.1 billion to €44.9 billion, mostly a result of re-allocations from longer-term savings deposits, though, which declined by €4.6 billion to €39.9 billion over the period. The combined balance of demand and savings deposits of €84.8 billion at the end of June 2016 included €8.4 billion of wholesale deposits. In addition to Postbank's retail-focused demand and savings deposits, the bank's stable funding base is further strengthened by €19.2 billion in sticky Bauspar-deposits from BHW Bausparkasse AG (BHW; unrated) and €14.5 billion in term client liabilities as of June 2016. As of June 2016, Postbank's market funding predominantly consisted of 1) €13.9 billion in liabilities to banks, of which €3.6 billion is funding - mostly repos - from parent DB; 2) €2.5 billion in covered bond securities, which have declined from €3.6 billion and €6.0 billion as of end-2014 and end-2013, respectively; and 3) about €0.9 billion of legacy funding issued by DSL Bank, which Postbank acquired in 1999. As a result of the bank's limited reliance on market funding, we assign an a2 Funding Structure score, in line with the macro-adjusted score. Postbank's market funding compares with sizable liquid banking assets, which comprise reverse repo investments of €9.7 billion and a €30.9 billion investment securities portfolio, although part of this is included in Postbank's non-core wind-down unit. After adjustment for the quality and encumbrance of these ample liquid resources, we currently assign a baa2 Liquid Resources score, three notches below the macro-adjusted score. Risk-Weighted Capitalisation is Adequate; Leverage Remains Weak Given DB's decision to retain Postbank, both banks will continue to operate under a profit-and-loss transfer agreement, which lowers the risk to Postbank's capital adequacy in a stressed economic environment, as any potential losses incurred by Postbank would have to be offset by its parent. As of September 2016, Postbank reported a 13.2% transitional CET1 ratio (December 2015: 13.8%; and December 2014: 10.7%), which translates into a fully-phased CET1 ratio of 11.6% (December 2015: 11.5%; and December 2014: 10.2%) after profit appropriation. The marked improvement during 2015 in the bank's regulatory capital ratios was driven by the re-acquisition and full consolidation as of end-2015 of its Funding Trust vehicles I-IV. It had sold these in the first quarter of 2013 to DB. Accordingly, on a temporary basis, liabilities issued to the funding trusts were recognised as Tier 2 capital for Postbank. Their re-acquisition led to an increase in regulatory Tier 1 capital and a decline in Tier 2 capital. The improved capital ratios were in addition supported by Postbank's fully retained net income for 2015, which in turn benefitted from a €280 million one-off pre-tax measurement gain on funding trust instruments. Postbank applies the advanced internal ratings based approach when determining risk weights for more than 75% of its assets, a factor that contributes to its low risk-weighted asset density, when compared with its German retail banking peers, particularly those in the cooperative and savings banks sectors. Postbank's tangible common equity (TCE) leverage ratio of 3.3% as of June 2016 remained almost unchanged compared to end-2015, but increased from 2.7% at end-2014. The recent progress in improving its capital metrics places the bank well ahead of its capital plan published in 2015. The plan foresaw gradual improvement through earnings retention and deleveraging, and which would have translated into the establishment of now already achieved TCE-based capital metrics only in 2017/18. The improvement in leverage led in turn to an improvement of our historic TCE/RWA ratio to 10.9% as of December 2015 (unchanged as of June 2016), equivalent to a baa2 macro-adjusted Capital score. On aggregate, we apply a three-notch downward adjustment to get to our assigned score, though, principally driven by the bank's still low nominal TCE leverage. Asset Quality has Improved, but Tail Risks Could Emerge Postbank's loan book is dominated by its residential mortgage lending franchise with reported assets of €67.2 billion as of June 2016 and good asset quality. Furthermore, the bank is running a growing and higher-risk consumer finance book, which stood at €6.5 billion as of June 2016, a 5.7% year-on-year increase. Asset tail risks could also emerge from its commercial real estate lending, an activity that exposes it to greater cyclical risks. Such lending represented €6.9 billion of the bank's €12.5 billion commercial lending book, or 4 27 March 2017 Deutsche Postbank AG: Update to Reflect Recent Affirmation of Ratings and Change in Outlook to Stable from Negative MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS more than 100% of its tangible common equity as of June 2016. Finally, Postbank's non-core operating unit (NCOU) portfolio recorded assets of €7.2 billion at the half-year 2016 stage, down from €9.0 billion as of December 2015. In addition to its lending portfolio, Postbank held €30.9 billion in investment securities as of June 2016, including €4.6 billion in euro area periphery sovereign debt, up from €3.8 billion as of December 2015 (€4.3 billion as of December 2014). These asset risks were not expressed in the bank's improved non-performing loan ratio of 1.9% as of June 2016 - compared with 2.0% as of end-2015 and 2.7% as of end-2014 – leading us to downwards adjust the Asset Risk score by three notches in total to baa2 from the a2 macro-adjusted score. Sustainable Profitability Remains Weak and Challenged by Low Interest Rate Environment Postbank's profitability continues to be negatively affected by its non-core activities, although the magnitude of the impact is declining. At the same time, its core consumer banking financial results, which have historically been relatively resilient, are increasingly affected by the persistently low interest rate environment, a common challenge among deposit-driven financial institutions. Another factor is the intense competition prevalent in retail banking, which results in continued investments in alternative distribution channels. For the first nine months 2016, Postbank achieved a pre-tax profit of €214 million, a 45% decline compared to the corresponding period in 2016. The reduction is a result of a 5.5% or €104 million drop in net interest income and a 16% (€306 million) increase in administrative expenses, mainly attributable to the reconsolidation of the service companies. The NCOU again reported a loss of €310 million compared to a pre-tax loss of €291 million in the first nine months of 2015. Postbank's NCOU segment held €7.2 billion in assets, but €23.4 billion in liabilities as of June 2016. This mismatch resulted in the extended negative net interest income reported by this unit. However, the mismatch continued to improve in 2016 as a result of maturing debt. Given that DB has decided to reallocate the remainder of its NCOU to its operating segments going forward, it remains to be seen whether Postbank will follow the same practice in its accounts in 2017. Postbank's retail segment and, in particular, its fully-consolidated building society BHW have been exposed to earnings pressure, resulting foremost from declining net interest margins in Germany's competitive retail mortgage lending market. A ruling by the Federal Court of Justice (Bundesgerichtshof, BGH) in November 2016, that Germany's building societies can no longer charge loan application fees for loans handed out under Bauspar contracts, might also result in a one-off charge and somewhat lower fee income going forward. On the flipside, a ruling by the same court in Februar 2017, that the common practice of contract cancellations post the contractually targeted savings period is lawful, might be a boon for BHW. Overall, we expect that the challenging market conditions will largely persist in 2017, exerting pressure on Postbank's core earnings from its retail and corporate banking activities, which is reflected in our assigned Profitability score of b3, in line with the macro- adjusted score. Postbank's BCA Benefits from its Strong+ Macro Profile Postbank's BCA overall benefits from the bank's Strong+ Macro Profile, largely determined by the German environment, with very high economic, institutional and government financial strength and very low susceptibility to event risk. Operating conditions for the German banking system are, however, constrained by the high level of fragmentation in a saturated market, low fee income generation, and intensifying competition for domestic business. Postbank's Strong+ Macro Profile also incorporates the issuer's exposures to countries to which we assign weaker macro profiles, such as Italy (Moderate+) and Spain (Moderate+) with exposures of €5.8 billion and €1.1 billion, respectively. Notching Considerations Affiliate Support Our affiliate support assumption is “very high”, reflecting the renewed strategic importance of Postbank for DB. However, the assumed support level does not result in any uplift to Postbank's ba1 BCA, which is at the same level as the BCA of its parent. Postbank's Adjusted BCA is thus aligned with its ba1 BCA. 5 27 March 2017 Deutsche Postbank AG: Update to Reflect Recent Affirmation of Ratings and Change in Outlook to Stable from Negative MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Loss Given Failure Postbank is subject to the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD), which we consider an Operational Resolution Regime. In this context, we expect that Postbank and its ultimate parent DB will form part of the same resolution perimeter, and we therefore transfer the results of DB's Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis to Postbank's liabilities, considering the risks faced by the different debt and deposit classes across the DB liability structure at failure. For DB's LGF analysis, we assume residual tangible common equity of 3% and losses post-failure of 8% of tangible banking assets, a 25% run-off in “junior” wholesale deposits, a 5% run-off in preferred deposits. These are in line with our standard assumptions. Following the new German insolvency legislation, which has effectively subordinated most senior bonds and notes to deposits in resolution since January 2017, we base our calculation on the assumption that deposits are preferred to most senior unsecured debt instruments. We included in our balance sheet at failure our estimate of deposits and assets relating to DB's branches and German subsidiaries. For deposits, our DB LGF analysis indicates an extremely low loss-given-failure, leading to a three-notch uplift from Postbank's ba1 Adjusted BCA. For senior debt, our DB LGF analysis indicates a low loss-given-failure, leading to a one-notch uplift from Postbank's ba1 Adjusted BCA. Our LGF analysis indicates a high loss-given-failure for subordinate debt classes, leading to a positioning one notch below the Adjusted BCA. Postbank's non-cumulative Trust preferred securities issued by Deutsche Postbank Funding Trust I, II, III, and IV are rated B1(hyb), which is three notches below the bank's adjusted BCA, reflecting their deeply subordinated claim in liquidation and non-cumulative coupon skip mechanism tied to the breach of a balance-sheet loss trigger or regulatory intervention. After the re-acquisition of these vehicles by Postbank from DB, capital payments continue to depend on regulatory approval and Postbank's performance, including that the bank has an amount of distributable profits for the preceding financial year (local GAAP basis, HGB). Government Support The implementation of the BRRD has caused us to reconsider the potential for government support to benefit certain creditors. Based on its embeddedness in DB, we currently expect a moderate probability of government support for Postbank's deposits, resulting in one-notch of additional uplift beyond that derived from LGF, producing a final rating of A3 for deposits and (P)Baa2 for debt. For other junior securities, we continue to believe that the potential for government support is low and these ratings do not, therefore, include any related uplift. 6 27 March 2017 Deutsche Postbank AG: Update to Reflect Recent Affirmation of Ratings and Change in Outlook to Stable from Negative MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS Rating Methodology and Scorecard Factors Exhibit 3 Deutsche Postbank AG Macro Factors Weighted Macro Profile Strong + 100% Financial Profile Factor Historic Ratio Macro Adjusted Score Credit Trend Assigned Score Key driver #1 Key driver #2 Solvency Asset Risk Problem Loans / Gross Loans 2.3% a2 ← → baa2 Non lending credit risk Sector concentration Capital TCE / RWA 10.9% baa2 ← → ba2 Nominal leverage Risk-weighted capitalisation Profitability Net Income / Tangible Assets 0.1% b3 ← → b3 Expected trend Combined Solvency Score baa2 ba2 Liquidity Funding Structure Market Funds / Tangible Banking Assets 12.0% a2 ← → a2 Market funding quality Liquid Resources Liquid Banking Assets / Tangible Banking Assets 32.1% a2 ← → baa2 Asset encumbrance Combined Liquidity Score a2 a3 Financial Profile baa3 Business Diversification 0 Opacity and Complexity 0 Corporate Behavior 0 Total Qualitative Adjustments 0 Sovereign or Affiliate constraint: Ba1 Scorecard Calculated BCA range baa3-ba2 Assigned BCA ba1 Affiliate Support notching 0 Adjusted BCA ba1 Balance Sheet in-scope (EUR million) % in-scope at-failure (EUR million) % at-failure Other liabilities -- -- -- -- Deposits -- -- -- -- Preferred deposits -- -- -- -- Junior Deposits -- -- -- -- Senior unsecured bank debt -- -- -- -- Dated subordinated bank debt -- -- -- -- Preference shares (bank) -- -- -- -- Equity -- -- -- -- Total Tangible Banking Assets -- -- -- -- 7 27 March 2017 Deutsche Postbank AG: Update to Reflect Recent Affirmation of Ratings and Change in Outlook to Stable from Negative MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS De jure waterfall De facto waterfall Notching Debt class Instrument volume + Subordination Sub- ordination Instrument volume + Subordination Sub- ordination De jure De facto LGF notching guidance versus BCA Assigned LGF notching Additional notching Preliminary Rating Assessment Counterparty Risk Assessment -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3 0 baa1 (cr) Deposits -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3 0 baa1 Senior unsecured bank debt -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 0 baa3 Dated subordinated bank debt -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -1 0 ba2 Instrument class Loss Given Failure notching Additional Notching Preliminary Rating Assessment Government Support notching Local Currency Rating Foreign Currency Rating Counterparty Risk Assessment 3 0 baa1 (cr) 1 A3 (cr) -- Deposits 3 0 baa1 1 A3 A3 Senior unsecured bank debt 1 0 baa3 1 Baa2 -- Dated subordinated bank debt -1 0 ba2 0 Ba2 Ba2 Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Ratings Exhibit 4 Category Moody's Rating DEUTSCHE POSTBANK AG Outlook Stable Bank Deposits A3/P-2 Baseline Credit Assessment ba1 Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba1 Counterparty Risk Assessment A3(cr)/P-2(cr) Senior Unsecured MTN -Dom Curr (P)Baa2 Subordinate Ba2 Commercial Paper -Dom Curr P-2 Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)P-2 Source: Moody's Investors Service Endnotes 1 The ratings shown are Deutsche Bank AG's deposit ratings and outlook, senior unsecured debt ratings and outlook, and baseline credit assessment (BCA) 8 27 March 2017 Deutsche Postbank AG: Update to Reflect Recent Affirmation of Ratings and Change in Outlook to Stable from Negative MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS © 2017 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). 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