21.11.2012 20:12:00

Kansas City Southern Railway Company (The) -- Moody's upgrades ratings of KCSR, senior unsecured to (P)Baa3, and KCSM, CFR to Ba1

Approximately $1.7 billion in debt securities affected

New York, November 21, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the ratings of Kansas City Southern ("KCS") and The Kansas City Southern Railway Company ("KCSR"), senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)Baa3 from (P)Ba2. Moody's has also upgraded the ratings of Kansas City Southern de Mexico S.A. de C.V. ("KCSM", a wholly-owned subsidiary of KCS), Corporate Family Rating to Ba1 from Ba2. At the same time, Moody's has assigned a Baa3 rating to KCSR's amended bank credit facility. The ratings for KCS, KCSR and KCSM have stable outlooks.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The ratings upgrade for KCS and its subsidiaries reflect the strengthening credit profiles of both companies evidenced by continuing improvements in the leverage, profitability, and liquidity at these railroads, and our expectations that these companies will be able to sustain strong credit metrics over the near term. The operating ratio (essentially one minus operating margin) at KCS' US operations, which is predominantly represented by the company's US railroad subsidiary KCSR, is expected to remain in the low-70% range over the near term. This ratio compares well to other larger Class I railroads that are rated Baa3 and higher. It should also result in strong operating cash flow that will enable KCS to maintain an aggressive and strategically important network investment program. Although this investment program is expected to result in negative free cash flow during the intermediate term, it should support meaningful improvement in service levels and greater pricing power over the long term.

While the company has grown its revenue by over 10% annually since 2009, KCS has been able to reduce debt at its US operations, and credit metrics have improved accordingly. Leverage (Debt to EBITDA) at the company's US operations is estimated at less than 2.5 times as of September 2012, and EBIT to Interest at over 8 times. These measures map well against other Baa3 rated companies. Operating cash flows have been robust, with Retained Cash Flow to Debt of over 40%. Despite the negative free cash flow resulting from its large investment program (in excess of 30% of revenue) debt levels and leverage at the US operations have remained relatively modest as a result of dividend distributions upstreamed from KCSM.

Although operating results are also strong at KCS' Mexican railroad, KCSM, the overall debt levels at this subsidiary remain somewhat elevated, resulting in ratings at KCSM that lag that of KCSR. Whereas debt at US operations now represents less than 100% of revenue in the US, which is roughly in-line with the Class I railroad average, KCSM's $1.4 billion of total debt represents over 140% of revenue. KCSM's key credit metrics for the last twelve months (LTM) through September 2012 include Debt to EBITDA of 2.7 times and EBIT to Interest of 3.5 times. These levels are appropriate for the Ba1 rating, but lag those of the US operations. Moreover, with higher debt levels relative to its size, we believe that KCSM does not enjoy the same downside protection as will the US operations in the event of a recession. KCSM's ratings also take into account recent distributions that it has made to its shareholder, KCS, and some potential that distributions in the future could keep KCSM's debt at higher levels than those of US operations.

KCSR's amended senior bank credit facilities are rated Baa3. Although this facility is currently secured by substantially all assets of the company's US operations, the terms of the amended facility prescribe a fall-away provision relating to certain rating changes, whereby the collateral is released from security pledges and the facilities effectively become senior unsecured obligations of the company. As these provisions will become effective shortly, Moody's has assigned the ratings of these facilities at the same level as KCSR's senior unsecured ratings.

The stable ratings outlook for KCS and its subsidiaries reflect Moody's expectations that the company's operations will be able to maintain solid operating margins while experiencing slow revenue growth over the near term. Operating cash flow is expected to be strong at both railroads over the next few years, sufficient to support substantial levels of investments in their networks, although we also expect that KCS will continue to use a moderate amount of cash distributed from KCSM, partially to cover a portion of US operations' investments.

The ratings could be raised if KCSR or KCSM can further reduce leverage, while at the same time grow the railroads' revenue base and improve margins. At KCSR, the company would need to demonstrate sustained operating ratios at US operations of below 70% through the business cycle, while maintaining leverage below 2.0 times Debt to EBITDA while substantially growing its revenue base. The ability to consistently generate positive free cash flow while maintaining capital spending of at least 17% of revenue will also be important for a ratings upgrade at KCS and KCSR. Similarly, the ratings of KCSM could be raised if the company could consistently grow its revenue base and maintain operating ratios in the mid-60% range, while reducing leverage to below 2.5 times and achieve EBIT to Interest in excess of 5 times.

Ratings could be lowered if operating conditions were to unexpectedly deteriorate, with operating ratios increasing substantially from current levels and negative free cash flow ensuing despite reductions in capital spending in such a downturn. Ratings could also be lowered if the company undertakes an aggressive shareholder return policy, possibly using cash flow or additional debt to fund such a program. Additionally, KCSM's ratings could be revised lower if they were to face any risk of termination of its concession with the Government of Mexico.

Issuer: Kansas City Southern, Inc

..Upgrades:

....Multiple Seniority Shelf, Upgraded to (P)Ba1 from (P)Ba2

..Withdrawals:

.... Probability of Default Rating, Withdrawn, previously rated Ba1

.... Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating, Withdrawn, previously rated SGL-2

.... Corporate Family Rating, Withdrawn, previously rated Ba1

....Multiple Seniority Shelf, Withdrawn, previously rated LGD5, 89%

Issuer: Kansas City Southern de Mexico, S.A. de C.V. ,

..Upgrades:

.... Corporate Family Rating, Upgraded to Ba1 from Ba2

....Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Upgraded to Ba1 from Ba2

....Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Upgraded to Baa3 from Ba1

Issuer: Kansas City Southern Railway Company (The) ,

..Upgrades:

....Senior Unsecured Shelf, Upgraded to (P)Baa3 from (P)Ba2

..Assignments:

....Senior Unsecured Bank Credit Facility, Assigned Baa3

..Withdrawals:

....Senior Unsecured Shelf, Withdrawn, previously rated LGD5, 89%

Issuer: Southern Capital Corporation ,

..Upgrades:

....Senior Secured Equipment Trust, Upgraded to Baa1, Baa1 from Baa2, Baa2

The principal methodology used in rating Kansas City Southern and rated subsidiaries was the Global Freight Railroad Industry Methodology, published March 2009. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative Grade Issuers in the US, Canada, and EMEA, published June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.

Kansas City Southern operates a Class I railway in the central U.S. (The Kansas City Southern Railway Company) and, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Kansas City Southern de Mexico, S.A. de C.V., owns the concession to operate Mexico's northeastern railroad.

Kansas City Southern operates a Class I railway in the central U.S. (The Kansas City Southern Railway Company) and, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Kansas City Southern de Mexico, S.A. de C.V., owns the concession to operate Mexico's northeastern railroad.

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David Berge VP - Senior Credit Officer Corporate Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Michael J. Mulvaney MD - Corporate Finance Corporate Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.

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