New York, June 15, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) affirmed the ratings of four classes and upgraded the ratings of ten classes of UBS Commercial Mortgage Trust, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-FL1. Moody's rating action is as follows:
Cl. A-1, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Jan 15, 2008 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-2, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Baa2 (sf)
Cl. B, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Ba1 (sf)
Cl. C, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. D, Upgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to B1 (sf)
Cl. E, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
Cl. F, Upgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to B3 (sf)
Cl. G, Upgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. H, Upgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. J, Upgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. K, Upgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. X, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. O-MD, Affirmed at B1 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to B1 (sf)
Cl. O-WC, Affirmed at Caa2 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2010 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmations are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio and Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) remaining within acceptable ranges. The upgrades are due to loan payoffs and anticipated loan payoffs resulting in build-up of credit support.
Moody's analysis reflects a forward-looking view of the likely range of collateral performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside an acceptable range of the key parameters may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated during the current review. Even so, deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action. There may be mitigating or offsetting factors to an improvement or decline in collateral performance, such as increased subordination levels due to amortization and loan payoffs or a decline in subordination due to realized losses.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. While commercial real estate property values are beginning to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases, distressed properties are cleared from the pipeline, and job creation rebounds. The hotel sector is performing strongly and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand. Moderate improvements in the office sector continue with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow. Performance in the retail sector has been mixed with lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with increased securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates. Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario reflects healthier growth in the US and US growth decoupling from the recessionary trend in the euro zone, while a mild recession is expected in 2012. Downside risks remain significant, although they have moderated compared to earlier this year. Major downside risks include an increase in the potential magnitude of the euro area recession, the risk of an oil supply shock weighing negatively on consumer purchasing power and home prices, ongoing and policy-induced banking sector deleveraging leading to a tightening of bank lending standards and credit contraction, financial market turmoil continuing to negatively impact consumer and business confidence, persistently high unemployment levels, and weak housing markets, any or all of which will continue to constrain growth.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating CMBS Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions" published in July 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based Large Loan Model v 8.4. The large loan model derives credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from Moody's loan level LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage, loan structure, property type, and sponsorship. These aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations. The model incorporates the CMBS IO calculator ver1.0 which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit estimates; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point . For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.0 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and Remittance Statements. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated October 27, 2011. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the May 15, 2012 Distribution Date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance decreased by approximately 27% from last review to $831 million due to the payoff of seven loans. The Certificates are collateralized by 12 floating rate whole loans and senior interests in whole loans. The loans range in size from 2% to 23% of the pooled balance, with the top three loans representing approximately 53% of the pooled balance. The pool's Herfindahl Index is 8.
The largest loan in the pool is secured by a fee interest in Jumeirah Essex House ($186 million; 23% of the pooled balance) located in Midtown Manhattan on Central Park South. The sponsor for the 515-room full-service hotel is Dubai Investment Group Limited and Dubai Holdings LLC. This is a flag ship property for the Jumeirah brand in the US. The final maturity date including extension options is September 9, 2012. There is an additional debt in the form of non-trust junior component and mezzanine debt outside the trust.
The in-place cash flow continues to be well below historical levels. Given the pending maturity date of the loan, Moody's analysis takes into account sponsorship, location, the inherent value in the property and comparable sales activities in New York City , its flag ship status in the chain, as well as significant replacement cost. Moody's current credit estimate for this loan is B3, same as last review.
The Maui Prince Resort (now called Makena Beach & Golf Resort) Loan ($150 million; 18% of pooled balance plus $30 million in three non-pooled , or rake bonds) is currently in special servicing, and pending return to master servicer in September 2012. The loan is secured by fee simple interest in Maui Prince Resort (310 guestrooms), two 18-hole golf course and 1,200 acres of undeveloped land located in Makena (Maui), HI. The loan was transferred to special servicing in June 2009. The rake investor assumed the A note and converted their interest in rake, or non-pooled bonds to equity as part of the assumption. The A note received a principal pay-down of $12.5 million, and loan maturity has been extended by three years with two one-year extension options.
The new sponsors for this loan are AREA Property Partners (formerly known as Apollo Real Estate Advisors), Trinity Investments, LLC, and Stanford Carr Development, LLC, a Honolulu based residential development firm. Moody's did not rate the three rake bonds associated with this loan (Classes M-MP, N-MP and O-MP). Total interest shortfalls to these three rake classes total $274,280 as of the May 2012 distribution date. Moody's current credit estimate for this loan is B3, same as last review.
The third largest loan in the pool is secured by a fee interest in Paramount Hotel ($101 million; 12% of the pooled balance) located in Times Square submarket in Midtown Manhattan. The 600-room full-service hotel loan matures on July 5, 2012. There is an additional debt in the form of mezzanine debt outside the trust. The property's performance is showing improvement benefitting from completion of renovation and strength of the overall NYC lodging market. Net cash flow for the property continued to increased from a low of $6.9 million in 2009, to $11.3 million achieved in 2010 to $13.3 million in 2011. Moody's current credit estimate for this loan is B2 compared to Caa1 as last review.
There are currently six loans totaling 42% of pooled balance in special servicing. However, the Maui Prince Resort (now called Makena Beach & Golf Resort) and 281 & 321 Summer Street loans (combined totaling 21% of pooled balance) have been modified and are pending return to master servicer. MSREF Luxury Resort Portfolio Loan ($82 million; 10% of pooled balance) transferred to special servicing due to the borrower's inability to secure financing upon maturity (5/9/2012). There is additional debt in the form of a pari passu component (securitized in BALL 2007-BMB1 and MS 2007-XLF9 transactions), junior non-trust component and mezzanine debt. The loan is secured by three full-service resort hotels located in Orlando, FL and Phoenix, AZ. Total Net cash flow from the portfolio for 2011 was approximately $33 million, virtually unchanged from that of 2010. Moody's credit estimate for this loan is Caa3, same as last review.
The Marriott Washington, DC Loan ($55 million; 7% of pooled balance plus $1.9 million of rake bond) transferred to special servicing due to the borrower's inability to secure financing upon maturity (5/19/2012). The property's net cash flow for 2011 was $7.8 million, down slightly from $8.3 million achieved in 2010. The net cash flow through the first four periods of 2012 is up slightly from that of 2011 at $2.3 million versus $2.2 MM in 2011. Moody's credit estimate for this loan is Ba3, same as last review.
Cumulated bond loss totals $36.3 million and affects pooled Class L and rake bonds M, NP, N-MP, O-MP, O-HW, O-SA, and O-BH. Interest shortfalls total $285,590 and affect rake classes N-MP, O-MP, O-MD, and O-WC. In addition, as of the May 2012 distribution date, outstanding P&I advances total $260,000 and outstanding servicing advances total $731,413 in connection with the smallest loan in the pool, Rex Corp NJ/Long Island Land Loan.
Moody's weighted average pooled trust loan to value (LTV) ratio is 96% compared to 95% at last review. Moody's weighted average stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) for the pooled trust is at 0.73X compared to 0.74X at last review.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's received and took into account one or more third-party assessments on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction and the assessments had a neutral impact on the rating.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
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Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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Eun Jee Park VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Michael Gerdes MD - Structured Finance Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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