New York, November 28, 2012 -- Moody's has affirmed three classes and downgraded one class of Certificate issued by J.P. Morgan Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities Trust 2009-RR2, due to deterioration in the credit quality of the underlying collateral, as evidenced by the rating action dated November 16, 2012 on the GECMC Pooled Certificates. The affirmation is due to key transaction parameters performing within levels commensurate with the existing ratings levels. The rating action is the result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligation (CRE Non-Pooled Re-REMIC) transactions.
Cl. GE-A, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Nov 13, 2009 Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. GE-B, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Sep 16, 2011 Downgraded to A2 (sf)
Cl. ML-A, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Nov 13, 2009 Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. ML-B, Affirmed at A2 (sf); previously on Jun 9, 2010 Downgraded to A2 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
J.P. Morgan Trust 2009-RR2 is a non-pooled pass through Trust backed by two commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) Certificates groups: the Group GE Certificates are backed by $50 million, or 5.38% of the aggregate class principal balance, of the super senior Class A-4 issued by GE Commercial Mortgage Corporation, Series 2007-C1 Trust (GECMC 2007-C1), Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-C1 (the "GECMC Pooled Certificate"); the Group ML Certificates are backed by $50 million, or 6.35% of the aggregate class principal balance, of the super senior Class A-4 issued by ML-CFC Commercial Mortgage Trust 2007-7 (ML-CFC 2007-7), Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-7 (the "MLCFC Pooled Certificate"). This rating action is applicable to the Group GE Certificates only.
On November 16, 2012, Moody's downgraded the Class A-4 Certificate of GECMC 2007-C1 due to negative credit migration of the underlying collateral and higher expected losses for the pool. Moody's rating action for GECMC 2007-C1 reflected a base expected loss of 14.5% of the current balance. Moody's also reported a stressed scenario loss of 33.1% of the current balance for the transaction. Depending on the magnitude, severity, and timing of losses from specially serviced loans and the balance of the pool, along with any loan payoffs, sequential paydowns may not reach this class. At the same time, losses are likely to erode the credit enhancement cushion for the super senior classes creating a potential differential in expected loss between those super senior classes benefiting first from paydowns and those classes receiving paydowns last. On January 20, 2012, Moody's affirmed the class A-4 certificate of ML-CFC 2007-7 due to key transaction parameters performing within levels commensurate with the existing ratings levels.
Updates to key parameters, including the constant default rate (CDR), constant prepayment rate (CPR), weighted average life (WAL), and weighted average recovery rate (WARR), did not materially change the expected loss estimate of the Certificates resulting in the affirmations.
Within the resecuritization, the WAL of the Class A-4 Certificates of GECMC 2007-C1 and ML-CFC 2007-7 are 4.2 years and 4.4 years respectively, assuming a 0%/0% CDR/CPR. For delinquent loans (30+ days, REO, foreclosure, bankrupt), Moody's assumes a fixed WARR of 40% while a fixed WARR of 50% for current loans. Moody's also ran a sensitivity analysis to a fixed WARR of 40% for current loans. This resulted in 0 to 3 notches downward to the ratings of Class GEA, GEB, ML-A and ML-B certificates.
Since the ratings of the non-pooled re-remic Certificates are linked to the rating of the Underlying Certificate which in turn are linked to the performance of the underlying commercial mortgage pool's performance, any rating action on the underlying certificate may trigger a review of the ratings of the certificates.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodological approach used in these ratings are as follows: Moody's applied ratings-specific cash flow scenarios assuming different loss timing, recovery and prepayment assumptions on the underlying pool of mortgages that are the collateral for the underlying CMBS transaction through Structured Finance Workstation® (SFW), the cash flow model developed by Moody's Wall Street Analytics. The analysis incorporates performance variances across the different pools and the structural features of the transaction including priorities of payment distribution among the different tranches, tranche average life, current tranche balance and future cash flows under expected and stressed scenarios. In each scenario, cash flows and losses from the underlying collateral were analyzed applying different stresses at each rating level. The resulting ratings specific stressed cash flows were then input into the structure of the resecuritization to determine expected losses for each class. The expected losses were then compared to the idealized expected loss for each class to gauge the appropriateness of the existing rating. The stressed assumptions considered, among other factors, the underlying transaction's collateral attributes, past and current performance, and Moody's current negative performance outlook for commercial real estate.
The other methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating Repackaged Securities" published in April 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
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Kumud Jha Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Deryk Meherik VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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