Mexico, November 28, 2012 -- Moody's de México, S.A. de C.V. (Moody's) notes that as of today, the securities contemplated by this transaction have not yet been placed in the market. If any assumption or factor considered by Moody's in assigning the ratings change before closing, Moody's could change the ratings assigned to the certificates.
Issuer: Nacional Financiera S.N.C., Institución de Banca de Desarrollo, acting solely in its capacity as trustee.
Series A Certificates CEDEVIS 12-2U for up to UDI 653,118,800, rated Aaa.mx (sf) (Mexican National Scale) and Baa1 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency).
Subordinated Certificates (initially named "Constancia Preferente") for up to UDI 62,799,800, rated Aa2.mx (sf) (Mexican National Scale) and Baa3 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency).
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's has assigned a rating of Aaa.mx (sf) to the Series A Certificates CEDEVIS 12-2U and a rating of Aa2.mx (sf) to the Subordinated Certificates (initially named as "Constancia Preferente"), sponsored by Instituto del Fondo Nacional de la Vivienda para los Trabajadores (Infonavit).
Interest and principal to certificate holders will be payable with cash flow from mortgage loans granted to primarily low and middle-income borrowers originated by Infonavit and assigned to the trust, established under the laws of Mexico.
This transaction represents the second CEDEVIS RMBS for Infonavit in 2012. The ratings are based upon the following factors:
-- The credit quality of the pool, which is comprised of minimum wage-denominated, variable-rate, first-lien, residential mortgage loans granted to primarily low-income borrowers in Mexico.
-- Credit enhancement for Series A in the form of subordination (7.5%) and overcollateralization (14.5%); Series A has a target credit enhancement equal to 22%.
-- Credit enhancement for the Subordinated Certificates in the form of overcollateralization (14.5%).
-- Strong initial excess spread equivalent to 4.3% of the initial pool balance on an annualized basis.
-- The legal final maturity of the certificates in December 2040.
-- The strong mortgage origination standards of Infonavit and its capability in its role as servicer. Infonavit is rated SQ1- as primary servicer and "Above Average" as originator of Mexican low-income mortgage loans
-- The well-established Mexican laws governing mortgage securitization.
The securitized mortgage pool is comprised of minimum wage-denominated, variable-rate, first-lien, mortgage loans secured by low-income houses located in Mexico. The portfolio reviewed by Moody's was comprised of 17,490 mortgage loans with an aggregate outstanding balance of MXN$4,085 million as of November 11, 2012 (cut-off date). As of the cut-off date, the key weighted average statistics were as follows: original loan-to-value (LTV) of 85.2%, current LTV of 75.4%, payment-to-income of 18.1%,original loan amount of VSM 142, seasoning of 29 months, coupon of 9.15% and borrower monthly salary of 8.1 VSM. As of the same date, there were no co-financed loans and all the loans were current.
The certificates are denominated in UDIs and have a fixed interest rate. At closing, Series A represented 78% of the issuance balance, the Subordinated Certificates represented 7.5% of the issuance balance and the residual certificate ("Constancia Subordinada") accounted for the remaining 14.5%. Unlike Infonavit CEDEVIS transactions issued prior to 2012, which use all collections to "full-turbo" the Class A certificates after covering trust expenses and interest payments, this transaction permits principal payments to the Subordinated Certificates so long as certain overcollateralization and Series A target credit enhancement requirements are met. Under certain scenarios, payments may also be leaked to the residual holder, unlike traditional CEDEVIS structures. Further, Series A is promised the payment of timely interest and principal by the legal final maturity date. The Subordinated Certificates, however, are promised ultimate principal but they may be locked-out of interest in certain periods; any interest payment shortfalls will be capitalized and added to the Subordinated Certificates' balance.
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating Mexican RMBS", published August 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com.mx for a copy of this methodology.
Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered for the ratings can also be found at www.moodys.com.mx in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab.
For this transaction, Moody's assumed a cumulative gross default and a severity of loss of 27.0% and 59.9%, respectively, calculated as a percentage of the initial pool balance in the most likely model scenario. Expected net loss for this pool in the most likely stress-case model scenario is 16.2%. Cumulative prepayment over the life of this transaction is assumed at 1.9% and is timed along a prepayment curve.
The transaction's performance is heavily dependent on the Mexican economy and on the stability of inflation and employment. Currently, Moody's sovereign risk group rates Mexico's foreign currency debt obligations Baa1 and its local currency debt obligations Baa1. These ratings indicate that the Mexican economy and inflation could be subject to significant variation over time. However, the quality of the originator's underwriting standards, the credit quality of the collateral, and the credit enhancement, mitigate to some extent the potential effects of adverse performance in the Mexican economy and housing markets. According to the legal opinion, the transaction has been structured as a valid sale of the securitized assets to the issuing trust.
Future performance of this MBS transaction is linked to the unemployment rate. Future performance can be affected negatively under an economic slowdown scenario with high levels of unemployment that could pressure Infonavit's ability to collect payments under the loans. The primary source of assumption uncertainty is the unemployment level. If a borrower loses his job in the private sector, Infonavit will not have the ability to automatically deduct the mortgage payment from the borrower's payroll. At the same time, the borrowers' available income to repay the mortgage loan could be substantially reduced as a result of a weak macroeconomic environment.
The V Score for this transaction indicates Medium/High uncertainty about critical assumptions, in line with the Medium/High score for the Infonavit/Fovissste RMBS sector. V Scores are a relative assessment of the quality of available credit information and of the degree of dependence on various assumptions used in determining the rating. High variability in key assumptions could expose a rating to more likelihood of rating changes. The factors contributing to the weak V Score are limited performance history of the emerging market asset class, the limited experience of key transaction parties and the level of legal and regulatory uncertainty. V Scores are intended to rank transactions by the potential for significant rating changes owing to uncertainty around the assumptions due to data quality, historical performance, the level of disclosure, transaction complexity, the modeling and the transaction governance that underlie the ratings.
Moody's parameter sensitivities provide a quantitative/model-indicated calculation of the number of rating notches that a Moody's-rated structured finance security may vary if certain input parameters used in the initial rating process differed. Qualitative factors are also taken into consideration in the ratings process, so the actual ratings that would be assigned in each case could vary from the information presented in the parameter sensitivity analysis. The results generated by rating models are one of many inputs to the rating process. Ratings are determined collectively through the exercise of judgment by rating committees, which evaluate many quantitative and qualitative factors.
Moody's key ratings-model assumption for this transaction is the stressed cumulative gross default percentage. In the parameter sensitivity analysis, if the assumed cumulative gross default of 27.0% used in determining the initial rating were changed to 62.6%, the model-indicated rating for Class A notes would change from Baa1 (sf)/Aaa.mx (sf) to Ba3+ (sf)/Baa1.mx (sf), respectively. It should be noted that the cumulative gross default assumption is already a stressed assumption and is higher than Moody's expected case.
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available on www.moodys.com.
Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Methodology published in October 2012 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".
Moody's has reviewed the origination and servicer practices and considers them adequate.
In issuing and monitoring this rating, Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V. considered the existence and extent of arrangements and mechanism, if any, to align the incentives of the originator, servicer, administrator and guarantor of the securities with those of its potential acquirers.
Credit ratings incorporate Moody's macroeconomic outlook and its implications on key variables that may include but not be limited to interest rates, inflation, economic growth, unemployment, performance of counterparties, credit availability, sector level changes in competitive conditions, supply/demand and margins, and issuer specific changes in capital structure, competitive positioning, governance, risk profile, and liquidity. Unexpected changes in such variables may lead to changes in the credit rating level, potentially by several notches. Further information on the sensitivity of the rating to specific assumptions is included in this disclosure.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.mx.
The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity prior to public dissemination.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings and public information.
A general listing of the sources of information used in the rating process, and the structure and voting process for the rating committees responsible for the assignment and monitoring of ratings can be found in the Disclosure tab in www.moodys.com.mx.
Moody's received and took into account one or more third-party assessments on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction and the assessments had a neutral impact on the rating.
Further information on the representations and warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors are available on http://moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF307642
In issuing this credit opinion, Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V. did not rely on ratings issued by any other credit rating agency over this issuer/security or any underlying securities.
In compliance with regulatory requirements, Moody's de Mexico has been informed that during the two-month period prior to the execution of the rating agreement governing this rating assignment, no other credit rating agency has assigned a rating on the same issuer/securities referred to in this press release.
The ratings issued by Moody's de Mexico are opinions regarding the credit quality of securities and/or their issuers and not a recommendation to invest in any such security and/or issuer.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com.mx for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com.mx for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com.mx for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
The ratings issued by Moody's de Mexico are opinions regarding the credit quality of securities and/or their issuers and not a recommendation to invest in any such security and/or issuer.
Karen Ramallo Vice President - Senior Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Maria Ines Muller Senior Vice President Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's de Mexico S.A. de C.V Ave.Paseo de las Palmas No. 405 - 502 Col. Lomas de Chapultepec Mexico, DF 11000 Mexico JOURNALISTS: 001-888-779-5833 SUBSCRIBERS:52-55-1253-5700(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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