New York, November 29, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) downgraded the ratings of seven classes and affirmed 17 classes of J.P. Morgan Chase Commercial Mortgage Securities Corp., Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2007-LDP11 as follows:
Cl. A-2, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 1, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-2FL, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 1, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-3, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 1, 2007 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-4, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Cl. A-SB, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Cl. A-1A, Downgraded to A3 (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Cl. A-M, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to A3 (sf)
Cl. A-J, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
Cl. B, Downgraded to Caa3 (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. C, Affirmed at Ca (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. D, Affirmed at Ca (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. E, Affirmed at Ca (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. F, Affirmed at Ca (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. G, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. H, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. K, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. L, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. M, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. N, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. P, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. Q, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. T, Affirmed at C (sf); previously on May 5, 2010 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. X, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The downgrades of the six principal classes are due to higher realized and anticipated losses from specially serviced and troubled loans. The downgrade of the IO Class, Class X, is a result of the decline in credit performance of its referenced classes.
The affirmations are due to key parameters, including Moody's loan to value (LTV) ratio, Moody's stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the Herfindahl Index (Herf), remaining within acceptable ranges. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their current ratings.
Moody's rating action reflects a cumulative base expected loss of 17.4% of the current balance. At last review, Moody's cumulative base expected loss was 12.1%. Realized losses have increased from 0.3% of the original balance to 1.0% since the prior review. Moody's provides a current list of base losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating U.S. CMBS Conduit Transactions" published in September 2000, and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.61 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a paydown analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade credit assessments is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the credit assessment of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the credit assessment level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit assessments in the same transaction.
Moody's review also incorporated the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1, which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit assessments; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point. For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 53 compared to 60 at Moody's prior review.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and a proprietary program that highlights significant credit changes that have occurred in the last month as well as cumulative changes since the last full transaction review. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated December 15, 2011. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the November 15, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 12% to $4.8 billion from $5.4 billion at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 238 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 6% of the pool, with the top ten loans representing 36% of the pool. There are no defeased loans or loans with an investment grade credit assessment.
Fifty-two loans, representing 27% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact performance.
Thirteen loans have been liquidated from the pool, resulting in an aggregate realized loss of $51.0 million (39% loss severity on average). There is an additional $4.6 million aggregate loss due to modifications on several loans, resulting in a total certificate realized loss of $55.6 million. Forty-four loans, representing 33% of the pool, are currently in special servicing. The largest specially serviced loan is the GSA Portfolio Loan ($284.0 million -- 6.0% of the pool), which is secured by nine office properties located in West Virginia (4 properties), New York (2), Colorado (1), Pennsylvania (1) and Kansas (1). The loan was originally scheduled to mature in May 2012 and transferred to special servicing due to imminent maturity. The portfolio totals 1.1 million square feet (SF) and was 95% leased as of March 2012 compared to 100% at last review. The Mineral Wells, West Virginia property (3% of the net rentable area (NRA)) is completely vacant after the tenant exercised its termination option in October 2012. Six additional tenants (approximately 17% of the NRA) currently have termination rights and over 67% of the NRA expires within the next five years. Despite historic stable performance and occupancy, Moody's is concerned about the ability to refinance this loan due to the tenant termination options and near term rollover risk. The special servicer indicated that it is currently in negotiations with the borrower on a potential loan modification.
The second largest specially serviced loan is the 315 Park Avenue South Loan ($219.0 million -- 4.6% of the pool), which is secured by a 334,000 SF office building located in New York, New York. The loan was originally transferred to special servicing in October 2011 due to the borrower's request for a discounted payoff, but was transferred back to the master servicer in January 2012 after the sale of the property fell through. The loan then returned to special servicing in April 2012 due to imminent maturity default as the loan was scheduled to mature in June 2012. Foreclosure documents were filed in July 2012. The property was 100% leased as of March 2012, the same as last review. Over 95% of the NRA expires in 2017 including the largest tenant, which represents 81% of the NRA. The special servicer is discussing workout options with the borrower, but a final resolution has not been determined.
The third largest specially serviced loan is the Franklin Mills Loan ($174.0 million -- 3.6% of the pool), which is a pari-passu interest in a $290.0 million first mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 1.6 million SF regional mall located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The loan was transferred to special servicing in April 2012 due to imminent monetary default. The mall is anchored by Burlington Coat Factory (8% of the NRA; lease expiration October 2013), J.C. Penney (6% of the NRA; lease expiration February 2022) and Marshalls (5% of the NRA; lease expiration January 2016). There is also one vacant anchor space, formerly Steve & Barry's, that represents approximately 8% of the NRA). As of October 2012 the mall was 81% leased compared to 82% at last review and 22% of the NRA is either month-to-month or expires within the next 12 months. The special servicer indicated that it is currently negotiating the terms of a potential loan modification. The remaining 41 specially serviced loans are secured by a mix of multifamily, retail, hotel, office and industrial property types. Most of these loans are either real estate owned (REO) or in the process of foreclosure. As of the November 15, 2012 distribution date, the master servicer has recognized an aggregate $400.5 million appraisal reduction for 27 of the specially serviced loans. Moody's has estimated an aggregate $577.0 million loss (46% expected loss on average) for the specially serviced loans.
Moody's has assumed a high default probability for 28 poorly performing loans representing 14% of the pool and has estimated an aggregate $123.9 million loss (19% expected loss on average) from these troubled loans.
As of the most recent remittance date, the pool has experienced cumulative interest shortfalls totaling $46.2 million and affecting Classes F through NR. Moody's anticipates that the pool will continue to experience interest shortfalls caused by specially serviced loans. Interest shortfalls are caused by special servicing fees, including workout and liquidation fees, appraisal subordinate entitlement reductions (ASERs), loan modifications, extraordinary trust expenses and non-advancing by the master servicer based on a determination of non-recoverability.
Moody's was provided with full year 2011 operating results for 97% of the pool's non-specially serviced loans. Excluding specially serviced and troubled loans, Moody's weighted average LTV is 127% compared to 129% at Moody's prior review. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 10% to the most recently available net operating income. Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.7%.
Excluding special serviced and troubled loans, Moody's actual and stressed DSCRs are 1.21X and 0.83X, respectively, compared to 1.20X and 0.82X at last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
The top three performing loans represent 13% of the pool balance. The largest performing loan is the Maple Drive Portfolio Loan ($220.0 million -- 4.7% of the pool), which is secured by three suburban office properties, totaling 584,000 SF, located in Beverly Hills, California. As of May 2012, the portfolio was 84% leased compare to 74% at last review. The largest tenant is Fox Interactive Media (28% of the NRA; lease expiration May 2016). Performance has declined steadily since 2009 due to the decline in occupancy, however, due to contractual rent bumps and a recent increase in occupancy, property performance is expected to improve in 2012. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 142% and 0.67X, respectively, compared to 145% and 0.65X at last review.
The second largest performing loan is the 5 Penn Plaza Loan ($203.0 million -- 4.3% of the pool), which is secured by a 657,000 SF office building located in New York, New York. The property was 98% leased as of August 2012, the same as prior review. Rental revenue has been stable, however, property performance declined due to an increase in real estate taxes and repair and maintenance expenses. The loan is interest only for the entire term and matures in May 2017. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 126% and 0.75X, respectively, the same as last review.
The third largest performing loan is the Save Mart Portfolio Loan ($185.9 million -- 3.9% of the pool), which is secured by 31 single tenant grocery stores located in various markets in Northern California. The portfolio totals 1.6 million SF that is triple net leased to Save Mart through January 2027. One property, 6454 Tupelo Drive, located in Citrus Heights, California, is currently dark and has several deferred maintenance issues but Save Mart is still paying the contractual rent amount. The loan is benefitting from amortization and matures in April 2017. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 115% and 0.85X, respectively, compared to 109% and 0.89X at last review.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Matthew Halpern Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Keith Banhazl Vice President - Senior Analyst Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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