Buenos Aires City, December 12, 2012 -- Moody's Latin America (Moody's) has rated the debt securities and certificates of Fideicomiso Financiero Pvcred Serie XV, using the updated structure. This transaction will be issued by Equity Trust Company (Argentina) S.A.- acting solely in its capacity as issuer and trustee.
Moody's notes that as of today, the securities contemplated by this transaction have not yet settled. If any assumptions or factors considered by Moody's in assigning the ratings change before closing, Moody's could change the ratings assigned to the notes.
Moody's has withdrawn the ratings of the Class VRDB and Certificates because the liability structure of the transaction has changed before issuance and as a result the rating of the Class VRDB and Certificates tranche will change. Moody's has assigned new ratings to these tranches as follows. Please refer to the Moody's Investors Service's Policy for Withdrawal of Credit Ratings, available on its Web site, www.moodys.com.
- ARS 27,829,000 in Class A Fixed Rate Debt Securities (VRDA TF) of "Fideicomiso Financiero Pvcred Serie XV", rated Aaa.ar (sf) (Argentine National Scale) and Ba3 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency)
- ARS 66,095,000 in Class A Floating Rate Debt Securities (VRDA TV) of "Fideicomiso Financiero Pvcred Serie XV", rated Aaa.ar (sf) (Argentine National Scale) and Ba3 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency)
- ARS 18,553,000 in Class B Debt Securities (VRDB) of "Fideicomiso Financiero Pvcred Serie XV", rated Caa2.ar (sf) (Argentine National Scale) and Caa3 (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency)
- ARS 3,479,000 in Certificates (CP) of "Fideicomiso Financiero Pvcred Serie XV", rated Ca.ar (sf) (Argentine National Scale) and Ca (sf) (Global Scale, Local Currency).
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rated securities are payable from the cashflow coming from the assets of the trust, which is an amortizing pool of approximately 10,921 eligible personal loans denominated in Argentine pesos, bearing fixed interest rate, originated by Pvcred, a financial company owned by Comafi's Group in Argentina.
The VRDA TF will bear a fixed interest rate of 15%. The VRDA TV will bear a floating interest rate (BADLAR plus 400bps). The VRDA TV's interest rate will never be higher than 23% or lower than 15%. The VRDB will bear a fixed interest rate of 24%.
Overall credit enhancement is comprised of subordination, various reserve funds and excess spread.
The transaction has initial subordination levels of 72.68% and 7,80% for the VRDA TF and the VRDA TV respectively, calculated over the pool's principal balance and accrued interest as of the cut off date. The subordination levels will increase overtime due to the turbo sequential payment structure.
The transaction also benefits from an estimated 26.33% annual excess spread, before considering losses, trust expenses, taxes or prepayments and calculated at the cap of 23% for the VRDA TV.
Moody's considered the credit enhancement provided in this transaction through the initial subordination levels for each rated class, as well as the historical performance of Pvcred portfolio. In addition, Moody's considered factors common to consumer loans securitizations such as delinquencies, prepayments and losses; as well as specific factors related to the Argentine market, such as the probability of an increase in losses if there are changes in the macroeconomic scenario in Argentina.
These factors were incorporated in a cash flow model that takes into account all the relevant features of the transaction's assets and liabilities. Monte Carlo simulations were run, which determines the expected loss for the rated securities.
Moody's analyzed the historical performance data of previous transactions and similar receivables originated by Pvcred, ranging from January 2007 to June 2012. In assigning the rating to this transaction, Moody's assumed a lognormal distribution of losses for each one of the different securitized subpools: (a) for the PVCred and the "Staff" loans, a mean of 14% and a coefficient of variation of 70%; (b) for the "Cuota Ya" loans, a mean of 25% and a coefficient of variation of 70%; (c) for "Refinanced" loans, mean of 32% and a coefficient of variation of 70%; (d) for loans with a discounted installment, mean of 13% and a coefficient of variation of 70%; (e) for "Provenclick" loans originate through an online platform, mean of 25% and a coefficient of variation of 70% . Also, Moody's assumed a lognormal distribution for prepayments with a mean of 40% and a coefficient of variation of 70%;
Servicer default was modeled by simulating the default of Banco Comafi as the servicer consistent with its current rating of B2/A1.ar. In the scenarios where the servicer defaults, Moody's assumed that the defaults on the pool would increase by 20 percentage points.
The model results showed 0.01% expected loss for Class A Fixed Rate Debt Securities and a 1.29% for the Floating Rate Debt Securities, 33.85% expected loss for Class B Fixed Rate Debt Securities and 68.89% for the Certificates.
Moody's ran several stress scenarios, including increases in the default rate assumptions. If default rates were increased 5% from the base case scenario, the ratings of the Class A Fixed Rate would be unchanged. The ratings of the Class A Floating Rate, Class B and CP would likely be downgraded to B1(sf), Ca(sf) and C(sf). The ratings of the CP would remain unchanged.
Finally, Moody's also evaluated the back-up servicing arrangements in the transaction. If Pvcred is removed as collection agent, Banco Comafi will be appointed as the back-up collection agent.
The main source of uncertainty for this transaction is the default level of the securitized pool. Although Moody's analyzed the historical performance data of previous transactions and similar receivables originated by Pvcred, the actual performance of the securitized pool may be affected, among others, by the economic activity, high inflation rates compared with nominal salaries increases and the unemployment rate in Argentina.
For more information on this transaction, please refer to the New Issue Report to be published in moodys.com.
Moody's National Scale Ratings (NSRs) are intended as relative measures of creditworthiness among debt issues and issuers within a country, enabling market participants to better differentiate relative risks. NSRs differ from Moody's global scale ratings in that they are not globally comparable with the full universe of Moody's rated entities, but only with NSRs for other rated debt issues and issuers within the same country. NSRs are designated by a ".nn" country modifier signifying the relevant country, as in ".mx" for Mexico. For further information on Moody's approach to national scale ratings, please refer to Moody's Rating Methodology published in October 2012 entitled "Mapping Moody's National Scale Ratings to Global Scale Ratings".
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings and public information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction.
Further information on the representations and warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors are available on http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF305530
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Rodrigo Gabriel Conde Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sLatin America Ing. Butty 240 16th Floor Buenos Aires City C1001AFB Argentina JOURNALISTS: (800) 666 -3506 SUBSCRIBERS: (5411) 5129 2600 Maria Ines Muller Senior Vice President Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Latin America Ing. Butty 240 16th Floor Buenos Aires City C1001AFB Argentina JOURNALISTS: (800) 666 -3506 SUBSCRIBERS: (5411) 5129 2600 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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