New York, November 20, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service placed under review for downgrade the ratings of 90 tranches and placed under review for upgrade the ratings of two tranches in 15 National Collegiate student loan trusts backed by private (i.e. not government guaranteed) student loans. U.S. Bank, N.A. is the special servicer and Goal Structured Solutions, a wholly owned subsidiary of Goal Financial, LLC, is the administrator of all trusts.
The primary reason for the reviews for downgrade is performance deterioration of the underlying student loan collateral. Delinquencies and defaults on the loans originated through both school financial aid offices and the direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel that entered repayment after 2006 have been increasing. Cumulative defaults during the first year of repayment on the pools of loans that entered repayment in 2007 or later are almost twice as high as cumulative defaults on the pools of loans that entered repayment in 2006 or earlier. The negative performance of the post-2006 repayment vintages affects primarily 2006 and 2007 securitizations, which include a large percentage of the post-2006 vintage loans. The 90+ delinquencies as a percentage of loans in active repayment (i.e. not in school, grace, deferment or forbearance) in the 2006 and 2007 securitizations is approximately 3%, a whole percent higher than the 90+ delinquencies in the pre-2006 securitizations. Similarly, monthly defaults as a percentage of loans in active repayment for 2006 and 2007 securitizations have been above 0.75%, while monthly defaults in the pre-2006 securitizations have ranged between 0.25% and 0.5%.
The reviews for downgrade were also prompted by correction of the static pool default information that the transaction sponsor, First Marblehead Corporation, provided to Moody's. The information that served as a basis for the May 2011 rating actions did not include defaults on rehabilitated loans. The most recent information correctly included rehabilitated loans and indicated substantially higher cumulative defaults. Rehabilitated loans are loans that have defaulted but subsequently returned to repayment and repurchased by the trusts.
Finally, several tranches rated A3 and above were placed on review for downgrade because Moody's is re-evaluating its view on the tranches' senior position in the distribution of cash. Currently, principal payments are made sequentially among all Class A notes. However, upon an event of default the principal distribution among the Class A notes will switch to pro-rata.
Moody's placed two classes of notes in the Master Trust on review for possible upgrade due to the substantial pay down of the notes and the resulting increase in credit enhancement supporting them.
The principal methodology used in National Collegiate Student Loan Trust rating actions was "Moody's Approach to Rating U.S. Private Student Loan-Backed Securities", published on 6 January 2010 and available at www.moodys.com in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issue can also be found in the Rating Methodologies sub-directory on Moody's website. In addition, Moody's publishes a weekly summary of structured finance credit, ratings and methodologies, available to all registered users of our website, at www.moodys.com/SFQuickCheck.
The performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody's forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside the given range may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated when the related securities ratings were issued. Even so, a deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action nor does performance within expectations preclude such actions. The decision to take (or not take) a rating action is dependent on an assessment of a range of factors including, but not exclusively, the performance metrics.
RATINGS
Complete actions are as follows:
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2003-1 (The)
Cl. A-7, Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Caa1 (sf)
Cl. IO, Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Caa1 (sf)
Cl. B-1, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. B-2, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-1
Cl. A-2, A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A3 (sf)
Cl. A-3, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Caa3 (sf)
Cl. A-IO-2, Caa3 (sf) Remains On Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Sep 30, 2010 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf) and Remained On Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. B-1, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. B-2, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: The National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2004-2
Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)
Cl. A-5-1, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)
Cl. A-IO, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)
Cl. B, Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-1
Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)
Cl. A-5-1, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. A-5-2, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. B, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-2
Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)
Cl. A-5, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. B, Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-5-2, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2005-3
Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)
Cl. A-5-1, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. A-5-2, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. B, Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-1
Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)
Cl. A-5, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. B, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-2
Cl. A-2, Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Aa3 (sf)
Cl. A-3, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B1 (sf)
Cl. B, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-3
Cl. A-2, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-3, Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Mar 11, 2009 Downgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)
Cl. A-5, Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa2 (sf)
Cl. B, Ba2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba2 (sf)
Cl. C, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. D, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2006-4
Cl. A-2, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)
Cl. A-3, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. B, B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B2 (sf)
Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. D, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-1
Cl. A-2, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)
Cl. A-3, Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa3 (sf)
Cl. A-4, B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B1 (sf)
Cl. B, B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B2 (sf)
Cl. C, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Cl. D, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-2
Cl. A-2, A1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at A1 (sf)
Cl. A-3, Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Baa1 (sf)
Cl. A-4, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
Cl. B, B1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at B1 (sf)
Cl. C, Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. D, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-3
Cl. A-3-L, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-2, Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-3, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-4, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-5, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-6, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-7, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl-A-IO, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade;
Issuer: National Collegiate Student Loan Trust 2007-4
Cl. A-3-L, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-2, Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-3, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-4, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-5, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-6, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-3-AR-7, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. A-IO, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Issuer: The National Collegiate Master Student Loan Trust I (2001 Indenture)
NCT-2002-AR9, Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba1 (sf)
NCT-2002-AR-10, Ba2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade; previously on Jun 16, 2011 Confirmed at Ba2 (sf)
NCT-2003AR-12, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
NCT-2003AR-13, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
NCT-2003AR-14, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
NCT-2005AR-15, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
NCT-2005AR-16, Ca (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade; previously on Apr 8, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
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JingJing DangAsst Vice President - Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Irina Faynzilberg VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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