RATINGS RATIONALE
The actions are a result of the recent performance review of Alt-A pools originated before 2005 and reflect Moody's updated loss expectations on these pools.
The methodologies used in these ratings were "Moody's Approach to Rating US Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities" published in December 2008, and "Pre-2005 US RMBS Surveillance Methodology" published in January 2012. The methodology used in rating Interest-Only Securities was "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Today's rating action constitute of a number of downgrades as well as upgrades. The upgrades are due to significant improvement in collateral performance, and/ or rapid build-up in credit enhancement due to high prepayments.
The downgrades are a result of deteriorating performance and/or structural features resulting in higher expected losses for certain bonds than previously anticipated. For example in shifting interest structures, back-ended liquidations could expose the senior bond holders to tail-end losses. The subordinate bonds in the majority of these deals are currently receiving 100% of their principal payments, and thereby depleting the dollar enhancement available to the senior bonds. In our current approach, we capture this risk by running each individual pool through a variety of loss and prepayment scenarios in the Structured Finance Workstation® (SFW), the cash flow model developed by Moody's Wall Street Analytics. This individual pool level analysis incorporates performance variances across the different pools and the structural nuances of the transaction
Moody's adjusts the methodologies noted above for 1) Moody's current view on loan modifications 2) small pool volatility.
Loan Modifications
As a result of an extension of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) to 2013 and an increased use of private modifications, Moody's is extending its previous view that loan modifications will only occur through the end of 2012. It is now assuming that the loan modifications will continue at current levels until the end of 2013.
Small Pool Volatility
The above RMBS approach only applies to structures with at least 40 loans and a pool factor of greater than 5%. Moody's can withdraw its rating when the pool factor drops below 5% and the number of loans in the deal declines to 40 loans or lower. If, however, a transaction has a specific structural feature, such as a credit enhancement floor, that mitigates the risks of small pool size, Moody's can choose to continue to rate the transaction. Please refer further to Moody's Investors Service's Withdrawal Policy, which can be found on our website, www.moodys.com.
Moody's has withdrawn the ratings of Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-8AR Loan Group 1 and Loan Group 2 pursuant to published rating methodologies that allow for the withdrawal of the rating if the size of the underlying collateral pool at the time of the withdrawal has fallen below a specified level. Please refer to the Moody's Investors Services Policy for Withdrawal of Credit Ratings, available on its Web site, www.moodys.com.
For pools with loans less than 100, Moody's adjusts its projections of loss to account for the higher loss volatility of such pools. For small pools, a few loans becoming delinquent would greatly increase the pools' delinquency rate.
To project losses on Alt-A pools with fewer than 100 loans, Moody's first calculates an annualized delinquency rate based on vintage, number of loans remaining in the pool and the level of current delinquencies in the pool. For Alt-A and Option Arm pools, Moody's first applies a baseline delinquency rate of 10% for 2004, 5% for 2003 and 3% for 2002 and prior. Once the loan count in a pool falls below 76, this rate of delinquency is increased by 1% for every loan fewer than 76. For example, for a 2004 pool with 75 loans, the adjusted rate of new delinquency is 10.1%. Further, to account for the actual rate of delinquencies in a small pool, Moody's multiplies the rate calculated above by a factor ranging from 0.50 to 2.0 for current delinquencies that range from less than 2.5% to greater than 30% respectively. Moody's then uses this final adjusted rate of new delinquency to project delinquencies and losses for the remaining life of the pool under the approach described in the methodology publication.
When assigning the final ratings to senior bonds, in addition to the methodologies described above, we considered the volatility of the projected losses and timeline of the expected defaults. For bonds backed by small pools, we also considered the current pipeline composition as well as any specific loss allocation rules that could preserve or deplete the overcollateralization available for the senior bonds at different pace.
The primary source of assumption uncertainty is the uncertainty in our central macroeconomic forecast and performance volatility due to servicer-related issues. The unemployment rate fell from 9.0% in April 2011 to 8.1% in April 2012. Moody's forecasts a further drop to 7.8% for 2013. Moody's expects house prices to drop another 1% from their 4Q2011 levels before gradually rising towards the end of 2013. Performance of RMBS continues to remain highly dependent on servicer procedures. Any change resulting from servicing transfers or other policy or regulatory change can impact the performance of these transactions.
Complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-1
Cl. 1-A-1, Downgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-3, Downgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-5, Downgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-6, Downgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-7, Downgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-8, Confirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-9, Downgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-10, Downgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-11, Downgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-P, Downgraded to Aa3 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)
Cl. 1-A-X, Confirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A-2, Downgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A-4, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Underlying Rating: Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Financial Guarantor: Radian Asset Assurance Inc. (Confirmed at Ba1, Outlook Negative on Apr 17, 2012)
Cl. 2-A-5, Downgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aaa (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A-P, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)
Cl. 2-A-X, Confirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-10AR
Cl. 1-A, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A-1, Confirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A-2, Confirmed at Baa2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A-3, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A, Confirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-X, Confirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 4-A, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. B-1, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Caa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. B-2, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-11AR
Cl. 1-A-1, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-2A, Downgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Aa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-2B, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-X-2, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to A3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-X-B, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-2AR
Cl. 1-A, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A, Confirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A, Confirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 4-A, Confirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-3
Cl. 1-A-X, Confirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A-1, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Cl. 2-A-2, Downgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Cl. 2-A-3, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Baa3 (sf)
Cl. 2-A-4, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Underlying Rating: Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Financial Guarantor: MBIA Insurance Corporation (B3 placed on review for possible downgrade on Dec 19, 2011)
Cl. 2-A-6, Confirmed at Baa2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 4-A, Confirmed at Baa2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. C-A-P, Downgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Baa2 (sf)
Cl. C-A-X, Confirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. B-1, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. B-2, Downgraded to C (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Ca (sf)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-5AR
Cl. 1-A-1, Downgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-2, Downgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-A-3, Downgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A, Confirmed at Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-1, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-2, Confirmed at Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-3, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-5, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 4-A, Confirmed at Ba1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. B-1, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Caa3 (sf)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-6AR
Cl. 1-A, Upgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Cl. 2-A-1, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
Cl. 2-A-3, Downgraded to Caa2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 B2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-M-1, Upgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Caa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Cl. 1-M-2, Confirmed at C (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 C (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Cl. 1-M-3, Confirmed at C (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 C (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Cl. 1-B-1, Confirmed at C (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 C (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Cl. 1-B-2, Confirmed at C (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 C (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-7AR
Cl. 1-A, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. 2-A-7, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-8AR
Cl. 1-A, Withdrawn (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 1-X, Withdrawn (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A, Withdrawn (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-X, Withdrawn (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A, Confirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 4-A-2, Confirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Baa3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 4-A-5, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. S-B-1, Withdrawn (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Confirmed at Ca (sf)
Cl. S-B-2, Withdrawn (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to C (sf)
Cl. S-B-4, Withdrawn (sf); previously on Apr 24, 2009 Downgraded to C (sf)
Issuer: Morgan Stanley Mortgage Loan Trust 2004-9
Cl. 1-A, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 2-A, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-1, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-2, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-3, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-4, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-5, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-6, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-X, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 3-A-P, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
Cl. 4-A, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 5-A, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jan 31, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade
Cl. 5-A-X, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review Direction Uncertain
Cl. 5-A-P, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Mar 10, 2011 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
A list of these actions including CUSIP identifiers may be found at:
Excel: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF291067
A list of updated estimated pool losses, sensitivity analysis, and tranche recovery details is being posted on an ongoing basis for the duration of this review period and may be found at:
Excel: http://v3.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF237256
For more information please see www.moodys.com.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
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Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Jiwon Park Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Bruce D. Fabrikant Senior Vice President Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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