New York, November 30, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service upgraded the ratings of four classes and affirmed ten classes of Citigroup Commercial Mortgage Securities Inc., Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates, Series 2005-EMG as follows:
Cl. A-4, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 13, 2005 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. A-J, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 13, 2005 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
Cl. B, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 17, 2010 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Cl. C, Affirmed at Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 17, 2010 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
Cl. D, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2011 Upgraded to Aa1 (sf)
Cl. E, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2011 Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
Cl. F, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2011 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
Cl. G, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2011 Upgraded to Baa1 (sf)
Cl. H, Affirmed at Baa3 (sf); previously on Jul 13, 2005 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
Cl. J, Affirmed at Ba1 (sf); previously on Jul 13, 2005 Definitive Rating Assigned Ba1 (sf)
Cl. K, Affirmed at B2 (sf); previously on Dec 17, 2010 Downgraded to B2 (sf)
Cl. L, Affirmed at Caa1 (sf); previously on Dec 17, 2010 Downgraded to Caa1 (sf)
Cl. M, Affirmed at Caa2 (sf); previously on Dec 2, 2011 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Cl. X, Affirmed at Ba3 (sf); previously on Feb 22, 2012 Downgraded to Ba3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrades are due to increased credit enhancement from paydowns since last review and the overall improved performance of the pool. Since Moody's prior review, the deal has paid down 44%. The affirmations of the principal classes are due to sufficient credit enhancement levels for the current ratings. Based on our current base expected loss, the credit enhancement levels for the affirmed classes are sufficient to maintain their ratings.
The rating of the interest only class, Class XC is consistent with the credit performance of its referenced classes and thus is confirmed.
Moody's rating action reflects a base expected loss of 0.9% of the current balance compared to 1.2% at last review. Moody's provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255. Depending on the timing of loan payoffs and the severity and timing of losses from specially serviced loans, the credit enhancement level for investment grade classes could decline below the current levels. If future performance materially declines, the expected level of credit enhancement and the priority in the cash flow waterfall may be insufficient for the current ratings of these classes.
Moody's analysis reflects a forward-looking view of the likely range of collateral performance over the medium term. From time to time, Moody's may, if warranted, change these expectations. Performance that falls outside an acceptable range of the key parameters may indicate that the collateral's credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody's had anticipated during the current review. Even so, deviation from the expected range will not necessarily result in a rating action. There may be mitigating or offsetting factors to an improvement or decline in collateral performance, such as increased subordination levels due to amortization and loan payoffs or a decline in subordination due to realized losses.
Primary sources of assumption uncertainty are the extent of growth in the current macroeconomic environment and commercial real estate property markets. Commercial real estate property values are continuing to move in a positive direction along with a rise in investment activity and stabilization in core property type performance. Limited new construction and moderate job growth have aided this improvement. However, a consistent upward trend will not be evident until the volume of investment activity steadily increases for a significant period, non-performing properties are cleared from the pipeline, and fears of a Euro area recession are abated.
The hotel sector is performing strongly with eight straight quarters of growth and the multifamily sector continues to show increases in demand with a growing renter base and declining home ownership. Slow recovery in the office sector continues with minimal additions to supply. However, office demand is closely tied to employment, where growth remains slow and employers are considering decreases in the leased space per employee. Also, primary urban markets are outperforming secondary suburban markets. Performance in the retail sector continues to be mixed with retail rents declining for the past four years, weak demand for new space and lackluster sales driven by discounting and promotions. However, rising wages and reduced unemployment, along with increased consumer confidence, is helping to spur consumer spending resulting in increased sales. Across all property sectors, the availability of debt capital continues to improve with robust securitization activity of commercial real estate loans supported by a monetary policy of low interest rates.
Moody's central global macroeconomic scenario maintains its forecast of relatively robust growth in the US and an expectation of a mild recession in the euro area for 2012. Downside risks remain significant, and elevated downside risks and their materialization could pose a serious threat to the outlook. Major downside risks include: a deeper than expected recession in the euro area; the potential for a hard landing in major emerging markets; an oil supply shock; and material fiscal tightening in the US given recent political gridlock. Healthy but below-trend growth in GDP is expected through the rest of this year and next with risks trending to the downside.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating Fusion U.S. CMBS Transactions" published in April 2005, "Moody's Approach to Rating CMBS Large Loan/Single Borrower Transactions" published in July 2000 and "Moody's Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only Securities" published in February 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Moody's review incorporated the use of the excel-based CMBS Conduit Model v 2.61 which is used for both conduit and fusion transactions. Conduit model results at the Aa2 (sf) level are driven by property type, Moody's actual and stressed DSCR, and Moody's property quality grade (which reflects the capitalization rate used by Moody's to estimate Moody's value). Conduit model results at the B2 (sf) level are driven by a pay down analysis based on the individual loan level Moody's LTV ratio. Moody's Herfindahl score (Herf), a measure of loan level diversity, is a primary determinant of pool level diversity and has a greater impact on senior certificates. Other concentrations and correlations may be considered in our analysis. Based on the model pooled credit enhancement levels at Aa2 (sf) and B2 (sf), the remaining conduit classes are either interpolated between these two data points or determined based on a multiple or ratio of either of these two data points. For fusion deals, the credit enhancement for loans with investment-grade credit assessments is melded with the conduit model credit enhancement into an overall model result. Fusion loan credit enhancement is based on the underlying credit assessment of the loan which corresponds to a range of credit enhancement levels. Actual fusion credit enhancement levels are selected based on loan level diversity, pool leverage and other concentrations and correlations within the pool. Negative pooling, or adding credit enhancement at the underlying rating level, is incorporated for loans with similar credit assessments in the same transaction.
Moody's review also incorporated the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 which uses the following inputs to calculate the proposed IO rating based on the published methodology: original and current bond ratings and credit estimates; original and current bond balances grossed up for losses for all bonds the IO(s) reference(s) within the transaction; and IO type corresponding to an IO type as defined in the published methodology. The calculator then returns a calculated IO rating based on both a target and mid-point. For example, a target rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is a 610 rating factor. The midpoint rating basis for a Baa3 (sf) rating is 775 (i.e. the simple average of a Baa3 (sf) rating factor of 610 and a Ba1 (sf) rating factor of 940). If the calculated IO rating factor is 700, the CMBS IO calculator ver1.1 would provide both a Baa3 (sf) and Ba1 (sf) IO indication for consideration by the rating committee.
Moody's uses a variation of Herf to measure diversity of loan size, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 12 compared to 27 at last review.
In cases where the Herf falls below 20, Moody's also employs the large loan/single borrower methodology. This methodology uses the excel-based Large Loan Model v 8.5 and then reconciles and weights the results from the two models in formulating a rating recommendation. The large loan model derives credit enhancement levels based on an aggregation of adjusted loan level proceeds derived from Moody's loan level LTV ratios. Major adjustments to determining proceeds include leverage, loan structure, property type, and sponsorship. These aggregated proceeds are then further adjusted for any pooling benefits associated with loan level diversity, other concentrations and correlations.
Moody's ratings are determined by a committee process that considers both quantitative and qualitative factors. Therefore, the rating outcome may differ from the model output.
The rating action is a result of Moody's on-going surveillance of commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) transactions. Moody's monitors transactions on a monthly basis through a review utilizing MOST® (Moody's Surveillance Trends) Reports and a proprietary program that highlights significant credit changes that have occurred in the last month as well as cumulative changes since the last full transaction review. On a periodic basis, Moody's also performs a full transaction review that involves a rating committee and a press release. Moody's prior transaction review is summarized in a press release dated December 2, 2011. Please see the ratings tab on the issuer / entity page on moodys.com for the last rating action and the ratings history.
DEAL PERFORMANCE
As of the November 23, 2012 distribution date, the transaction's aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 87% to $93.5 million from $722.1 million at securitization. The Certificates are collateralized by 37 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 16% of the pool, with the top ten loans representing 76% of the pool. The pool includes four loans with credit assessments, representing 50% of the pool.
Four loans, representing 17% of the pool, are on the master servicer's watchlist. The watchlist includes loans which meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of our ongoing monitoring of a transaction, Moody's reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could impact performance.
Five loans have been liquidated from the pool since securitization, resulting in an aggregate realized loss of approximately $42,700 (1% loss severity). There are no loans in special servicing at this time.
Moody's was provided with full year 2010 and full year 2011 financial for 99% and 97% of the pool respectively. Moody's weighted average LTV for the conduit component is 36% compared to 38% at Moody's prior review. Moody's net cash flow reflects a weighted average haircut of 13% to the most recently available net operating income (NOI). Moody's value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.4%.
Moody's actual and stressed DSCRs for the conduit component are 4.39X and 5.67X, respectively, compared to 4.26X and 5.02X at last review. Moody's actual DSCR is based on Moody's net cash flow (NCF) and the loan's actual debt service. Moody's stressed DSCR is based on Moody's NCF and a 9.25% stressed rate applied to the loan balance.
The largest loan with a credit assessment is the 50 East 42nd Street Loan ($15.0 million -- 15.9% of the pool), which is secured by a 144,378 square foot (SF) mixed use property located in midtown Manhattan at the intersection of 42nd street and Madison Avenue. The largest tenants are Rhinoceros Visual Effects & Design (7% of the net rental area (NRA); lease expiration December 2014), East 42nd Street Fitness (7% of the NRA; lease expiration January 2025) and Zillow (4% of the NRA; lease expiration June 2014). The property was 94% leased as of April 2012, the same as at last review. Moody's a credit assessment and stressed DSCR are Aa3 and 2.22X, respectively, compared to Aa3 and 2.28X at last review.
The second loan with a credit assessment is the 1001 Central Park Avenue Loan ($14.0 million --14.9% of the pool), which is secured by a 238,700 SF retail center located in Scarsdale, New York. The largest tenants are Wakefern Food Corporation (29% of the NRA; lease expiration January 2031), Simply Amazing of Westchester (10% of the NRA; lease expiration October 2014) and Planet Fitness (4% of the NRA; lease expiration April 2015). The property was 97% leased as of December 2011, compared to 87% at last review. Due to an increase in performance, Moody's credit assessment and stressed DSCR are A1 and 3.06X, respectively, compared to A3 and 1.86X at last review.
The third loan with a credit assessment is the 6 West 32nd Street Loan ($10.9 million -- 11.7% of the pool), which is secured by a 171-room hotel located in midtown Manhattan. The hotel was formerly a Red Roof Inn, but is now The New York Manhattan Hotel. Performance has been improving and the loan is benefiting from amortization. Moody's credit assessment and stressed DSCR are Baa1 and 2.32X, respectively, compared to Baa1 and 2.03X at last review.
The fourth loan with a credit assessment is the 295 Park Avenue South Loan ($6.8 million -- 7.2% of the pool), which is secured by a 179 unit-multifamily property located in the Flatiron neighborhood in Manhattan. The property was 100% leased as of April 2012, the same as at last review. Property performance has remained stable since last review and the loan is benefiting from amortization. Moody's credit assessment and stressed DSCR are Aaa and >4.0X, the same as at last review.
The top three performing conduit loans represent 16% of the pool balance. The largest conduit loan is the 17-25 Scenic Drive Loan ($5.1 million -- 5.4% of the pool), which is secured by a 191 unit multifamily property located in Croton On Hudson, New York. The property is known as Amberland Apartments. As of April 2012, the property was 97% leased compared to 100% at last review. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 49% and 1.87X, respectively, compared to 46% and 1.98X at last review.
The second largest loan is the 501 Fifth Avenue Loan ($5.0 million -- 5.3% of the pool), which is secured by a 146,000 SF office building located in the Grand Central neighborhood in Manhattan. The largest tenant is Grace Corporate Park (8% of the NRA; lease expiration July 2015). As of March 2012, the property was 89% leased compared to 91% at last review. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 20% and >4.0X, respectively, compared to 16% and >4.0X at last review.
The third largest conduit loan is the 71 West 47th Street Loan ($4.5 million -- 4.8% of the pool), which is secured by a 78,300 SF office building located in the diamond district in Manhattan. As of March 2012 the property was 93% leased. Performance has slightly improved since last review. Moody's LTV and stressed DSCR are 51% and 2.08X, respectively, compared to 55% and 1.90X at last review.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
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Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
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Lacey M Morgan Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Sandra Ruffin VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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