Issuer: Closed Joint Stock Company "First Mortgage Agent of AHML"
....Ru.Ruble264M B Notes, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Aug 13, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: Closed Joint Stock Company Second Mortgage Agent of AHML
....Ru.Ruble590.3M B Notes, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Aug 13, 2012 Ba3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
Issuer: National Mortgage Agent VTB 001
....Ru.Ruble2027.098M B Notes, Upgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Aug 13, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Upgrade
RATINGS RATIONALE
Today's rating action primarily reflects the build up of the credit enhancement under the affected notes since closing and the good performance of the portfolios backing the transactions as described below. As part of this review, the expected losses assumed for the affected transactions were also updated to reflect the current performance of the mortgage portfolios as well as their characteristics, such as low current loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, which is offset by the possibility of adverse selection as higher quality borrowers prepay and exit the portfolios. The expected losses in each of these transactions were updated to equal 5% of the current portfolio balance. The MILAN CE numbers for these transactions were not updated.
The lower rating achieved by the subordinated notes in First Mortgage Agent of AHML and Second Mortgage Agent of AHML transactions (together "AHML transactions") when compared to the Mortgage Agent VTB 001 transaction reflects the fact that the issuer account bank for the AHML transactions, ZAO Citibank, is an unrated entity and all collections as well as the reserve funds in the transactions are being held in this bank. Therefore, if this entity were to default before funds are moved to a different account bank, this would result in significant losses to these transactions. This risk has resulted in a maximum rating for the subordinated notes in AHML transactions being set at Baa3 (sf). On the other hand, Mortgage Agent VTB 001 transaction benefits from a rated issuer account bank (JSC VTB Bank "VTB" (Baa1/P-2)) and a rating trigger, which provides for a transfer of all funds held by the issuer with VTB to another, sufficiently rated account bank, if the long term senior unsecured rating of VTB falls below Baa3.
Closed Joint Stock Company First Mortgage Agent of AHML
The credit enhancement under the Class B notes is currently approximately 53.8%, out of which approximately 34.3% is represented by a non amortising reserve fund. The performance of the transaction has been within expectations, with 30+ day delinquencies equal to 2.2% of the current balance and outstanding defaults (defaults are defined as 90+ days in arrears) equal to 1.09% of the current balance as of September 30, 2012. To date, approximately 1.2% of defaulted mortgages (as percentage of original balance) have been repurchased out of the transaction by the originator. There is approximately 22.6% of the portfolio remaining in this transaction and the weighted average LTV of the portfolio is approximately 43.2%.
Closed Joint Stock Company Second Mortgage Agent of AHML
The credit enhancement under the Class B notes is currently approximately 43.2%, out of which approximately 23.8% is represented by a non amortising reserve fund. The performance of the transaction has been within expectations, with 30+ day delinquencies equal to 2.8% of the current balance and outstanding defaults (defaults are defined as 90+ days in arrears) equal to 2.1% of the current balance as of September 30, 2012. To date, approximately 1.7% of defaulted mortgages (as percentage of original balance) have been repurchased out of the transaction by the originator. There is approximately 34.5% of the portfolio remaining in this transaction and the weighted average LTV of the portfolio is approximately 38.6%.
National Mortgage Agent VTB 001
The credit enhancement under the Class B notes is currently approximately 44.5%, out of which approximately 4.7% is represented by a non amortising reserve fund. The performance of the transaction has been within expectations, with 30+ day delinquencies equal to 0.26% of the current balance and outstanding defaults (defaults are defined as 90+ days in arrears) equal to 0.16% of the current balance as of October 26, 2012. To date, approximately 2.8% of defaulted mortgages (as percentage of original balance) have been repurchased out of the transaction by the originator. There is approximately 44% of the portfolio remaining in this transaction and the weighted average LTV of the portfolio is approximately 40.6%.
Expected loss assumptions are subject to uncertainty with regard to general economic activity and house price development in the Russian Federation. Worse-than-expected economic conditions and lower-than-expected house prices would negatively affect the ratings. In addition, the ratings are linked to the ratings of Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending as originator and servicer in the AHML transactions and VTB24 as originator and servicer in the Mortgage Agent VTB 001 transaction. Please note that the ratings of AHML currently carry a Stable outlook whereas the outlook for the ratings of VTB24 is Negative. A significant downgrade of these entities could result in the downgrade of the notes of these transactions.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS in Europe, Middle East, and Africa published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
In reviewing the ratings of these transactions, Moody's used a cash flow model to model the cash flows and determine the loss for each tranche. The cash flow model evaluates all default scenarios that are then weighted considering the probabilities of the lognormal distribution assumed for the portfolio default rate. In each default scenario, the corresponding loss for each class of notes is calculated given the incoming cash flows from the assets and the outgoing payments to third parties and noteholders. Therefore, the expected loss or EL for each tranche is the sum product of (i) the probability of occurrence of each default scenario; and (ii) the loss derived from the cash flow model in each default scenario for each tranche. Moody's also considered scenarios where the Mortgage Agent has defaulted as a result of nonpayment of senior fees or interest on the notes, asset-liability mismatch, or insufficient mortgage coverage. In this case, Moody's assumed that the liquidation of assets occurred and the notes were repaid according to the post-enforcement waterfall using the proceeds of the asset liquidation assuming a recovery rate of 50%.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare each of the ratings are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of these transactions in the past six months.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entities or their related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Olga Gekht VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Michelangelo Margaria VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group Telephone:+39-02-9148-1100 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED,DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.
All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error negligent or otherwise or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.
NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.
MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."
Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.
This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.