New York, November 14, 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service announced today that it has upgraded the ratings of the following notes issued by Halcyon Structured Asset Management Long Secured/Short Unsecured 2007-3 Ltd.:
U.S.$31,500,000 Class A-2 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes Due December 29, 2019, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Aug 8, 2011 Upgraded to A1 (sf)
U.S.$21,000,000 Class B Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes Due December 29, 2019, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Aug 8, 2011 Upgraded to Baa2 (sf)
U.S.$9,100,000 Class C Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes Due December 29, 2019, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Aug 8, 2011 Upgraded to Ba1 (sf)
U.S.$21,700,000 Class D Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes Due December 29, 2019, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Aug 8, 2011 Upgraded to B1 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
According to Moody's, the rating actions taken on the notes reflect the benefit of the short period of time remaining before the end of the deal's reinvestment period in December 2012. In consideration of the reinvestment restrictions applicable during the amortization period, and therefore limited ability to effect significant changes to the current collateral pool, Moody's analyzed the deal assuming a higher likelihood that the collateral pool characteristics will continue to maintain a positive buffer relative to certain covenant requirements. In particular, the deal is assumed to benefit from lower WARF and higher spread levels compared to the levels assumed at the last rating action in August 2011. Moody's modeled a WARF of 2544 compared to 2762 at the time of the last rating action and a WAS of 3.85% compared to 2.80% at the time of the last rating action. Moody's also notes that the transaction's reported collateral quality and overcollateralization ratios are stable since the last rating action.
Due to the impact of revised and updated key assumptions referenced in "Moody's Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in June 2011, key model inputs used by Moody's in its analysis, such as par, weighted average rating factor, diversity score, and weighted average recovery rate, may be different from the trustee's reported numbers. In its base case, Moody's analyzed the underlying collateral pool to have a performing par and principal proceeds balance of $431.8 million, defaulted par of $8.5 million, a weighted average default probability of 17.05% (implying a WARF of 2544), a weighted average recovery rate upon default of 48.39%, and a diversity score of 50. The default and recovery properties of the collateral pool are incorporated in cash flow model analysis where they are subject to stresses as a function of the target rating of each CLO liability being reviewed. The default probability is derived from the credit quality of the collateral pool and Moody's expectation of the remaining life of the collateral pool. The average recovery rate to be realized on future defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance trends and collateral manager latitude for trading the collateral are also factors.
Halcyon Structured Asset Management Long Secured/Short Unsecured 2007-3 Ltd., issued in November 2007, is a collateralized loan obligation backed primarily by a portfolio of senior secured loans.
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in June 2011. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
Moody's modeled the transaction using a cash flow model based on the Binomial Expansion Technique, as described in Section 2.3 of the "Moody's Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" rating methodology published in June 2011.
In addition to the base case analysis described above, Moody's also performed sensitivity analyses to test the impact on all rated notes of various default probabilities. Below is a summary of the impact of different default probabilities (expressed in terms of WARF levels) on all rated notes (shown in terms of the number of notches' difference versus the current model output, where a positive difference corresponds to lower expected loss), assuming that all other factors are held equal:
Moody's Adjusted WARF -- 20% (2036)
Class X: 0 Class A-1: 0 Class A-2: +2 Class B: +3 Class C: +3 Class D: +1 Moody's Adjusted WARF + 20% (3053)
Class X: 0 Class A-1: 0 Class A-2: -2 Class B: -1 Class C: -1 Class D: -1 Moody's notes that this transaction is subject to a high level of macroeconomic uncertainty, as evidenced by 1) uncertainties of credit conditions in the general economy and 2) the large concentration of upcoming speculative-grade debt maturities which may create challenges for issuers to refinance. CLO notes' performance may also be impacted by 1) the manager's investment strategy and behavior and 2) divergence in legal interpretation of CLO documentation by different transactional parties due to embedded ambiguities.
Sources of additional performance uncertainties are described below:
1) Deleveraging: The main source of uncertainty in this transaction is whether deleveraging from unscheduled principal proceeds will commence on March 29th, 2013 and at what pace. Deleveraging may accelerate due to high prepayment levels in the loan market and/or collateral sales by the manager, which may have significant impact on the notes' ratings.
2) Application of Principal Proceeds: Another source of uncertainty is the extent to which the current cash in the principal proceeds account, totaling $113 million, will be reinvested prior to the end of the reinvestment period on December 29th, 2012, or subsequently used to pay down the notes on the March 29th 2013 payment date. Moody's tested the sensitivity of the notes' ratings to multiple scenarios, assuming different levels of reinvestment and redemption.
3) Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in defaulted assets reported by the trustee and those assumed to be defaulted by Moody's may create volatility in the deal's overcollateralization levels. Further, the timing of recoveries and the manager's decision to work out versus sell defaulted assets create additional uncertainties.
Further information on Moody's analysis of this transaction is available on www.moodys.com.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's did not receive or take into account a third-party assessment on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments related to the monitoring of this transaction in the past six months.
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Andrew Worthington Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Min Xu Vice President - Senior Analyst Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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