New York, December 04, 2012 -- Moody's Rating
Issue: Consolidated Bonds, 175 Series; Rating: Aa3; Sale Amount: $425,000,000; Expected Sale Date: 12-05-2012; Rating Description: Revenue: Government Enterprise
Issue: Consolidated Bonds, 176 Series; Rating: Aa3; Sale Amount: $170,000,000; Expected Sale Date: 12-05-2012; Rating Description: Revenue: Government Enterprise
Opinion
Moody's assigns Aa3 rating with stable outlook to the authority's 175th and 176th Series Consolidated Bonds. The Authority has $18.394 billion Consolidated Bonds outstanding, including these issues.
RATING RATIONALE
The Aa3 rating recognizes the authority's near monopoly control over critical transportation infrastructure in its service area; a trend of favorable financial results and the build-up of large reserve balances; historically steady growth in usage and inelastic demand at most facilities through severe stresses, as well as recently implemented toll and fare increases.
At the Aa3 rating and stable outlook Moody's expects that toll, fare and airport residual fee increases will bolster operating revenues and continue to provide strong debt service coverage ratios (DSCRs) over 2.0 times for escalating and increasingly back-loaded debt service.
The service area economy continues to slowly improve, and key financial metrics remain relatively stable. The authority continues to assess the cost of repairs related to Hurricane Sandy, but expects that insurance and Federal disaster relief will substantially cover all economic losses associated with the storm. Prior to the storm, the authority had increased estimated capital financing needs by nearly $2 billion through 2016, primarily for the World Trade Center (WTC) development. In addition, we expect significant growth in the authority's capital needs to maintain revenue producing assets in good repair, however a long-range capital improvement plan (CIP) has not yet been finalized and board-approved. The plan is expected to be approved in mid 2013. The Navigant Consulting audit report released in September identified an additional $17 billion in capital projects above the $26.9 billion preliminary 10-year CIP also identified in the report.
Thus far the authority has demonstrated fairly inelastic demand for its strategic transportation facilities in the densely populated Metropolitan New York service area despite large recent toll and fare rate increases and the economic recession. However, the additional stepped toll rate increases over the next four years, coupled with a slower economic recovery, or higher fuel prices, could depress traffic and revenue and weaken financial margins. The Aa3 rating also reflects the potential for additional sizeable projects totaling an additional $17 billion. These projects could require higher toll and fare increases or other revenue-raising initiatives that may not be sustainable. These and other factors are reflective of a Aa3 rating.
STRENGTHS
» The authority controls the operation of strategic transportation systems in the largest metropolitan area in the US, which ensures a stable, diverse revenue stream that has demonstrated resilience during economic downturns; rate increases as well as severe stresses such as the events of September 11th
» Total passengers at the authority's commercial airports were up 4.5% through September following a 1.8% increase in FY 2011. Residual airline agreements ensure rate recovery and diversity of carriers afford stability
» Audited financial results for FY 2011 showed continued favorable performance, with expenses below budget and revenue consistent with budget expectations. The DSCR was 3.11 times on a bond ordinance basis and 2.42 times on a Moody's calculated net revenue basis. Forecasted bond ordinance DSCR for FY 2012 is 3.25 times
» The authority has independent rate-setting ability for all of its enterprises and in September 2011 implemented large annual toll and fare increases for its bridges and tunnels, demonstrating the ability and willingness to use its pricing power to generate revenues to support its very large and growing capital improvement plan (CIP) and maintain strong DSCRs. The second phased in increase went into effect on December 2 ($1 increase on cash tolls)
» Completion of a comprehensive organizational audit has yielded positive changes to enhance operating and financial efficiencies; however, the audit also identifies substantial increases in needed capital projects over the next 10 years
CHALLENGES
» A significant increase in the FY 2012 CIP for WTC-related costs as well as a $17 billion increase in unfunded deferred capital needs, in addition to a $26.9 billion CIP over the next 10 years will likely pressure financial operations and weaken metrics. Neither the long-term CIP nor the additional deferred needs have yet been approved by the authority's board
» Increasing debt relative to operating revenues and use of non-amortizing and back-loaded debt increases the risk of lower DSCRs in later years, though overall debt maturities are level and generally in line with expected asset life
» The economic recession weakened demand for the authority's transportation facilities, and a prolonged economic recovery coupled with recent toll and fare increases and additional stepped rate increases over the next four years could negatively affect future demand, operating revenues and financial margins
» Total traffic at the bridges and tunnels is down 1.5% through September and 3.1% lower than forecasted after dropping 1.7% in FY 2011, though no significant negative impact is expected as a consequence of Hurricane Sandy
» The cost and complexity of the authority's CIP, particularly the development of the WTC site, as well as the subsidy of projects that are not self-supporting, will continue to pressure future financial operations and DSCRs, though projects that the authority is responsible for are on schedule and budget
» Continued budget cuts and deferred capital spending may have negative impacts on the maintenance and operation of authority's revenue generating assets
» A complex governance structure makes the authority vulnerable to political interference that can result in delays, revenue diversions for non-system assets, and added costs for major capital projects essential to the region
OUTLOOK
The outlook for the authority's credit ratings is stable at Aa3. The near monopoly over regional transportation infrastructure and resilient demand for transportation services is counterbalanced by the authority's very large, complex, and growing future capital needs, including major growing commitments to maintain revenue-producing assets in a state of good repair; the rebuilding of the WTC and on-going contributions to subsidize transit operations and non-revenue producing regional economic development projects, which will continue to exert negative rating pressures.
What could change the rating - UP
Accelerated growth in the regional economy that results in significantly and sustainably higher facility utilization and revenues, as well as the continued implementation of rate increases as planned to ensure self-sufficient operations for component enterprises, DSCRs consistently well above 2.0 times; continued successful delivery of WTC site components on schedule and within the current budget as well as more clarity regarding the not yet adopted 10-year CIP could exert positive credit pressure.
What could change the rating - DOWN
Lack of CIP funding clarity and transparency coupled with possible debt financing of an additional $17 billion in projects over the coming 10 years or more, without a commensurate increase in revenues that results in lower than currently forecasted DSCRs or liquidity, could place downward pressure on the rating. An increasingly back-loaded debt amortization structure also could exert downward rating pressure. A protracted downturn of the regional economy; an unforeseen increase in reconstruction costs related to Hurricane Sandy or the assumption of greater financial responsibility for non revenue-producing projects, including operations of the WTC site, also could negatively pressure the rating.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Airports with Unregulated Rate Setting published in July 2011 and Government Owned Toll Roads published in October 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
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Maria Matesanz Senior Vice President Public Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Chee Mee Hu MD - Project Finance Public Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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