RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating downgrade to A3 reflects the significant expected compliance costs that SCPPA will bear as part of a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) settlement related to regional haze reduction and the San Juan coal-fired generating unit SCPPA owns. SCPPA has 41.8% ownership interest in Unit No.3. In addition, there remains significant uncertainty surrounding how SCPPA will legally finance its share of the compliance costs. The uncertainty relates to whether the legal provisions of Senate Bill 1368 will preclude SCPPA's ability to issue revenue bonds. SB 1368 establishes a performance standard for all base load generation resources seeking long term investment in California. The performance standard is that greenhouse emissions must be equal or lower than those of a combined cycle natural gas plant on a Mwh basis.
There also remains uncertainty about SCPPA participants future exposure to a new complicated carbon cap and trade program. California's new cap and trade program we expect to reduce the economic value of the plant to the SCPPA participants. While the state's new carbon cap and trade program had its first auction in November 2012 and reportedly there were relatively few problems, the program is complicated and subject to unintended consequences.
Also recognized in the rating is the lower weighted A2 average credit quality of SCPPA-San Juan project participants. The A2 weighted average rating of the participants now reflects a previous rating action that had lowered the rating on the project's largest participant, the Imperial Irrigation District to A1 from Aa3.
The A3 rating on the SCPPA-San Juan bonds also reflects San Juan Unit 3's satisfactory operating record; SCPPA's prudent management of the project including maintaining satisfactory liquidity; and the bonds are well secured by take-or-pay contracts with several municipal electric utilities with an average weighted rating of A2.
SCPPA had acquired with the original 1993 San Juan Power Project bonds a 41.8% undivided ownership in the 497 MW San Juan Unit No. 3 coal fired generating station located in New Mexico. Unit 3 is part of a four-unit coal-fired generation facility.
OUTLOOK
Moody's has assigned a stable outlook on SCPPA's San Juan revenue bonds. Negative rating pressure remains however due to the evolving environmental regulation and the new California carbon cap and trade program. Moody's believes at this rating level the outlook is stable largely due to the strong take-or-pay contract obligations of the SCPPA participants.
What Could Change the Rating --UP
The rating could be upgraded should less uncertainty about financial impact of increased regulation on coal-fired generation be evident. Both the carbon cap and trade program and how the financing will take place to comply with the environmental upgrades on San Juan Unit No.3 are significant credit issues.
What Could change the Rating-DOWN
The rating could be downgraded further should the price of carbon rise significantly above the floor level and for any of the SCPPA participants that have uncovered carbon tonnage having a sizable unbudgeted cost which could pressure their contract obligation.
STRENGTHS
*The weighted average rating of SCPPA San Juan participants is A2
*Strong take-or-pay contracts
*Municipal electric utilities that are participants in SCPPA San Juan project are unregulated with several with electric rates below neighboring investor-owned utilities
*Relatively short-term on existing debt to 2020; but environmental retrofits have to be financed and how this gets done is question mark
*SCPPA power resource management is a positive feature of membership providing utilities diversity through joint ownership
CHALLENGES
*The new state cap and trade program is subject to complex rules which are subject to interpretation and could lead to untended consequences
*Municipal electric utilities that participate in the SCPPA San Juan Unit 3 project are now subject to the cap and trade program which includes new unregulated commodities market which could create significant cost exposure. The ceiling on the price of carbon is $50 a ton so as allowances lessen cost exposure increases
*There remains Implementation risk in next year if allowances do not cover full portfolio for individual utilities and speculators drive price up; the unbudgeted costs could be substantial
*Should SCPPA not be able to finance revenue bonds to finance the environmental upgrades required to be in compliance with the PNM and US EPA settlement, participants may have to use current surplus funds if permitted to meet their share of obligation
*Shift from coal-fired generation to other fuels including 33% renewable energy will have a rate impact which could yield unwillingness to raise rates
*Economic value of San Juan could be reduced relative to other fuels as added costs from the cap and trade program and new environmental improvements are made to the facility
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was US Municipal Joint Action Agencies published in October 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Please see the credit ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Dan Aschenbach Senior Vice President Public Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Michael G. Haggarty Senior Vice President Public Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
CREDIT RATINGS ISSUED BY MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE, INC. ("MIS") AND ITS AFFILIATES ARE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS PUBLISHED BY MOODY'S ("MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS") MAY INCLUDE MOODY'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MOODY'S DEFINES CREDIT RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S OPINIONS INCLUDED IN MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS DO NOT CONSTITUTE OR PROVIDE INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS AND MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE RECOMMENDATIONS TO PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. NEITHER CREDIT RATINGS NOR MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS COMMENT ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MOODY'S ISSUES ITS CREDIT RATINGS AND PUBLISHES MOODY'S PUBLICATIONS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.
ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED,DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT.
All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided "AS IS" without warranty of any kind. MOODY'S adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a credit rating is of sufficient quality and from sources MOODY'S considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, MOODY'S is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error negligent or otherwise or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. Each user of the information contained herein must make its own study and evaluation of each security it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.
NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.
MIS, a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Corporation ("MCO"), hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities (including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial paper) and preferred stock rated by MIS have, prior to assignment of any rating, agreed to pay to MIS for appraisal and rating services rendered by it fees ranging from $1,500 to approximately $2,500,000. MCO and MIS also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations -- Corporate Governance -- Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."
Any publication into Australia of this document is by MOODY'S affiliate, Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited ABN 61 003 399 657, which holds Australian Financial Services License no. 336969. This document is intended to be provided only to "wholesale clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001. By continuing to access this document from within Australia, you represent to MOODY'S that you are, or are accessing the document as a representative of, a "wholesale client" and that neither you nor the entity you represent will directly or indirectly disseminate this document or its contents to "retail clients" within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001.
Notwithstanding the foregoing, credit ratings assigned on and after October 1, 2010 by Moody's Japan K.K. ("MJKK") are MJKK's current opinions of the relative future credit risk of entities, credit commitments, or debt or debt-like securities. In such a case, "MIS" in the foregoing statements shall be deemed to be replaced with "MJKK". MJKK is a wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary of Moody's Group Japan G.K., which is wholly owned by Moody's Overseas Holdings Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of MCO.
This credit rating is an opinion as to the creditworthiness or a debt obligation of the issuer, not on the equity securities of the issuer or any form of security that is available to retail investors. It would be dangerous for retail investors to make any investment decision based on this credit rating. If in doubt you should contact your financial or other professional adviser.