New York, December 11, 2012 -- Moody's Rating
Issue: Revenue Bonds, Series 2012A; Rating: A3; Sale Amount: $161,655,000; Expected Sale Date: 12/18/2012; Rating Description: Revenue: Other
Opinion
Moody's Investors Service has assigned an A3 rating to Tampa General Hospital's (TGH) $161.7 million of Series 2012A fixed rate bonds to be issued by Hillsborough County Industrial Development Authority, FL. The outlook is revised to stable from negative. At this time we are affirming the A3 on $362.0 million of debt currently outstanding.
SUMMARY RATINGS RATIONALE
The A3 rating reflects Tampa General Hospital's large size (nearly $1 billion in total revenues) and status as the exclusive provider of several tertiary and quaternary services as the academic medical center for the University of South Florida (USF) School of Medicine. Tampa General Hospital enjoys a strong market position in the very competitive greater Tampa marketplace, indicative of its status as a high end provider of services. These attributes offset the weaker financial performance and lower debt service coverage levels reported in fiscal years (FY) 2011 and FY 2012 from stronger historical performance. FY 2012 results met management's and Moody's expectations and was largely due to effective expense and productivity initiatives that began mid-year. The improvement during the second half of FY 2012 and the increase in liquidity support the revision of the outlook to stable. FY 2013 is budgeted to be a stronger year as well.
Notwithstanding, the organization faces near-term transition risks given the upcoming retirement of the Chief Executive Officer who was instrumental in navigating Tampa General Hospital through its financial difficulties in the late 1990s and its spin out into a private 501c3 organization. Additionally, the hospital and USF are in the midst of determining their long-term relationship given the co-dependency that exists between the two enterprises. Earlier this year, TGH and USF School of Medicine executed a one year extension of their agreement, atypical of such arrangements that are usually multi-year commitments, and denotes some credit uncertainty.
STRENGTHS
*Improved operating performance during the last half of FY 2012 following large losses that TGH was incurring mid-way through FY 2012; operating cash flow margin of 6.9% in FY 2012 exceeded 5.6% reported in FY 2011 and budgeted expectations of 6.5% (Moody's reflects bad debt as a revenue deduction in FY 2012 and as an expense in FY 2011); FY 2012 performance was somewhat aided by a $7 million one-time Medicare settlement
*Increase in liquidity at the end of FY 2012 with a 40 day increase in cash on hand, rising to 188 days from 148 days at the end of FY 2011; cash to debt improved to 129% from 112% in FY 2011
*Strong reputation as the long-standing academic medical center of University of South Florida's (Aa2 issuer rating) School of Medicine; several exclusive tertiary and quaternary services as evidenced by TGH's near leading market position and very high Medicare case mix index of 2.08, one of the highest in Moody's rated portfolio
*Strong management team with very good bench strength that will be needed given the upcoming CEO transition; engaged board of trustees working with senior management and outside consultants to determine TGH's future and longer-term relationship with USF
*All fixed rate debt structure with no derivatives reflects conservative nature of TGH and its financial leadership
CHALLENGES
*FY 2012 and FY 2011 performance represents lower years of earnings for TGH after earlier years of more robust performance and stronger debt service coverage; rapid conversion to a new IT platform and large Medicaid reductions particularly impacted FY 2012 results; longer-term Medicaid cuts are uncertain
*13% increase in debt with $50 million in new money proceeds; pro forma cash-to-debt will decline to 114% while debt-to-revenue increases to 42.0% from 37.9% in FY 2012
*Pro forma debt coverage metrics decline to 5.1 times debt-to-cash flow and 3.8 times Moody's-adjusted maximum annual debt service coverage, weaker than the A3 medians of 3.7 times and 3.9 times, respectively
*Highly competitive market with the presence of BayCare Health System, the market leader in Tampa; BayCare owns St. Joseph's Women and Children's Hospital which increased its market share at TGH's expense in recent years
*Upcoming transition as the long-standing and well-regarded CEO will retire during 2013; no senior management changes are expected when the new CEO takes the helm
*Atypical one year extension of the academic affiliation agreement with USF School of Medicine as both USF and TGH decide what the optimal relationship is between the two organizations
Outlook
The stable outlook reflects our expectations that TGH will show improved performance in FY 2013 as volumes and surgeries return to the levels before the IT installation occurred. The increase in debt is manageable at the A3 rating level and improved performance in FY 2013 should results in stronger debt service coverage than pro forma levels based on audited FY 2012 results.
WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO UP
Continued strengthening of financial performance and debt coverage measures along with liquidity growth, smooth transition to new CEO leadership, longer-term executed affiliation agreement with USF School of Medicine and completion of TGH's strategic plan that is currently under development, no loss in market share
WHAT COULD MAKE THE RATING GO DOWN
Departure from current level of results; erosion in liquidity; failure to agree upon a new affiliation agreement with USF School of Medicine that leads to disruption in relationship and volumes; loss in market share; inability to have a smooth transition under new CEO leadership
RATING METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Not-For-Profit Healthcare Rating Methodology published in March 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
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Lisa Goldstein Associate Managing Director Public Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Jennifer Ewing Associate Analyst Public Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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