Moody's affirmation reflects UNB's improving profitability metrics in line with those of its local peers, solid capital buffers that compare favourably (with local and global peers) and a sound liquidity profile that is in line with local peers. The negative outlook reflects Moody's view that UNB's franchise and asset quality will remain under pressure over the next 12-18 months.
A full list of ratings is included at the end of the press release.
RATINGS RATIONALE
AFFIRMATION OF THE RATINGS
The affirmation of the ratings takes into account improvements in UNB's core profitability metrics since 2009 in line with the UAE averages. UNB's net interest margin increased to 3% as of end-June 2012 from 2.3% as of year-end 2009. UNB's pre-provision income (PPI) to average risk-weighted assets (RWAs) and net income to RWAs also increased to 3.1% and 2.4%, respectively, over the same period. UNB's capitalisation levels also remain solid and compare favourably with those of its local and global peers. UNB's Tier 1 ratio improved to 17.7% as of end-June 2012, from 15.5% as of year-end 2009, compared to the UAE average of 16.7%. The affirmation also reflects UNB's sound liquidity profile, with liquid assets to total assets ratio of 23% as of end-June 2012, in line with those of its local peers. UNB has moderate leverage, as exhibited by its 95% net loans-to-deposits ratio, which is slightly lower than the system average of 101%, as of year-end 2011.
RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK
Moody's decision to change the rating outlook to negative from stable reflects (1) asset-quality pressures, in conjunction with relatively low coverage levels and (2) UNB's reduced franchise growth.
--- ASSET QUALITY PRESSURES PERSIST, ALONG WITH LOW COVERAGE LEVELS
UNB's asset quality continues to face pressures, with reported problem loan levels increasing slightly to 8.9% of gross loans as of end-September 2012, well above the average of Abu Dhabi-based banks and global peers with baa3 standalone credit assessments. Although UNB's operations in Egypt are not significant to its balance sheet (at 4% of total assets), Moody's considers that these exposures add incrementally to overall asset-quality pressures, given the fragile operating environment in Egypt.
In conjunction with asset-quality pressures, Moody' also notes that UNB has relatively low coverage levels of 45% as of year-end 2011, compared with the median of similarly rated global peers' at 72%.
--- REDUCED FRANCHISE GROWTH
UNB's franchise growth has decelerated compared with the growth of its other Abu Dhabi-based peers. Since the onset of crisis, Abu Dhabi banks have grown with a solid CAGR of 7.8%; however, UNB continues to lag its peers with a CAGR of 3.5%. If sustained, these trends may indicate a stagnant or declining franchise, weakening the bank's standalone credit profile.
In line with the outlook change, Moody's will monitor the bank's franchise and asset-quality trends over next 12-18 months and continue to assess the bank's relative positioning to its local and global peers.
SUPPORT ASSUMPTIONS
UNB's A1 deposit rating is derived from (1) the bank's baa3 standalone credit assessment; and (2) Moody's assumption of a very high probability of support from the Aa2-rated Abu Dhabi government (the bank's majority shareholder with a 50% stake through the investment vehicle Abu Dhabi Investment Council). The very high systemic (government) support assumption results in five notches of uplift from the bank's standalone credit assessment.
Unless noted otherwise, bank-specific figures originate from the bank's financial statements, investor presentations and Moody's Banking Financial Metrics.
WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN
Downwards pressure on the bank's ratings would develop following further weakening of UNB's franchise and/or further deterioration in asset quality. As indicated by the negative outlook, upwards pressure on the ratings is currently limited.
RATINGS LIST
Moody's ratings on Union National Bank are:
- Long-term deposit (foreign and local-currency) rating of A1; negative outlook
- Short-term deposit (foreign and local-currency) rating of Prime-1
- BFSR of D+/baa3; stable outlook on the BFSR (as a D+ BFSR can map to either baa3 or ba1)
- Senior unsecured MTN programme (foreign-currency) ratings of provisional (P)A1; negative outlook
- Senior unsecured (foreign-currency) ratings of A1; negative outlook
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology", published in June 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
The rating has been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entity or its related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history. The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Nitish Bhojnagarwala Analyst Financial Institutions Group Moody'sInvestors Services Limited, Dubai Branch Gate Precinct 3, Level 3 P.O. Box 506845 DIFC - DubaiUAE Telephone: 00971 4237 9536 Yves J Lemay MD - Banking Financial Institutions Group JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service Ltd. One Canada SquareCanary WharfLondon E14 5FA United Kingdom JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 (C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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