China Exports Growth Accelerates, Trade Surplus Tops Expectations

(RTTNews) - China's exports registered a double-digit growth during January to February period despite the fall in shipments to the United States, leading to a surge in the trade surplus, official data revealed Tuesday.

Exports surged 21.8 percent from the prior year, faster than the 6.6 percent rise in December, the General Administration of Customs said. This was also stronger than economists' forecast of 7.1 percent.

At the same time, imports climbed 19.8 percent compared to 5.7 percent rise in December. Economists were expecting an annual growth of 6.3 percent.

As a result, the trade surplus rose to $213.6 trillion in the January to February period from $169.2 billion in the same period last year. This was well above forecast of $179.6 billion.

Exports to the US declined 11 percent from the previous year. Meanwhile, shipments to the ASEAN surged 29.4 percent.

Exports to the European Union climbed 27.8 percent and that to Latin America increased 16.4 percent. At the same time, exports to Africa advanced around 50 percent.

Following a record-breaking year for China's exports despite rising global protectionism, the torrid pace of trade growth from the first two months of the year is not likely to persist throughout 2026, ING economist Lynn Song said. Trade growth can be choppy month to month, he noted.

"Given the growing possibility of stagflation after the outbreak of the Iran war, it might seem a risky wager to assume this positive momentum continues - especially if energy prices remain higher for longer," Song said.

However, if US President Donald Trump's prediction of an end to the Iran war coming "very soon" comes to fruition, then a more modest boost from external demand this year is likely, added Song.