RATINGS RATIONALE
The actions are a result of the recent performance review of Subprime pools originated before 2005 and reflect Moody's updated loss expectations on these pools.
The methodologies used in this rating were "Moody's Approach to Rating US Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities" published in December 2008, and "Pre-2005 US RMBS Surveillance Methodology" published in January 2012. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Today's rating actions reflect recent collateral performance, our loss timing curves and detailed analysis of timing and amount of credit enhancement released due to step-down.
The above mentioned approach "Pre-2005 US RMBS Surveillance Methodology" is adjusted slightly when estimating losses on pools left with a small number of loans to account for the volatile nature of small pools. Even if a few loans in a small pool become delinquent, there could be a large increase in the overall pool delinquency level due to the concentration risk. To project losses on pools with fewer than 100 loans, Moody's first estimates a "baseline" average rate of new delinquencies for the pool that is dependent on the vintage of loan origination (11% for all vintages 2004 and prior). The baseline rates are higher than the average rate of new delinquencies for larger pools for the respective vintages.
Once the baseline rate is set, further adjustments are made based on 1) the number of loans remaining in the pool and 2) the level of current delinquencies in the pool. The volatility of pool performance increases as the number of loans remaining in the pool decreases. Once the loan count in a pool falls below 75, the rate of delinquency is increased by 1% for every loan less than 75. For example, for a pool with 74 loans from the 2004 vintage, the adjusted rate of new delinquency would be 11.11%. In addition, if current delinquency levels in a small pool is low, future delinquencies are expected to reflect this trend. To account for that, the rate calculated above is multiplied by a factor ranging from 0.85 to 2.25 for current delinquencies ranging from less than 10% to greater than 50% respectively. Delinquencies for subsequent years and ultimate expected losses are projected using the approach described in the methodology publication listed above.
When assigning the final ratings to senior bonds, in addition to the methodologies described above, we considered the volatility of the projected losses and timeline of the expected defaults. For bonds backed by small pools, we also considered the current pipeline composition as well as any specific loss allocation rules that could preserve or deplete the overcollateralization available for the senior bonds at different pace.
The above methodology only applies to pools with at least 40 loans and a pool factor of greater than 5%. Moody's may withdraw its rating when the pool factor drops below 5% and the number of loans in the pool declines to 40 loans or lower unless specific structural features allow for a monitoring of the transaction (such as a credit enhancement floor).
The primary sources of assumption uncertainty are our central macroeconomic forecast and performance volatility as a result of servicer-related activity such as modifications. The unemployment rate fell from 8.9% in October 2011 to 7.9% in October 2012. Moody's forecasts a unemployment central range of 7.5 to 8.5 for the 2013 year. Moody's expects housing prices to remain stable through the remainder of 2012 before gradually rising towards the end of 2013. Performance of RMBS continues to remain highly dependent on servicer activity such as modification-related principal forgiveness and interest rate reductions. Any change resulting from servicing transfers or other policy or regulatory change can also impact the performance of these transactions.
Complete rating actions are as follows:
Issuer: AMRESCO Residential Securities Corporation Mortgage Loan Trust 1998-3
A-7, Downgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Mar 24, 2011 Confirmed at Aaa (sf)
A list of these actions including CUSIP identifiers may be found at:
http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF309915
A list of updated estimated pool losses, sensitivity analysis, and tranche recovery details is being posted on an ongoing basis for the duration of this review period and may be found at: http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF237255
For more information please see www.moodys.com.
REGULATORY DISCLOSURES
The Global Scale Credit Ratings on this press release that are issued by one of Moody's affiliates outside the EU are endorsed by Moody's Investors Service Ltd., One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E 14 5FA, UK, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com.
For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.
Information sources used to prepare the rating are the following : parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information.
Moody's received and took into account one or more third party assessments on the due diligence performed regarding the underlying assets or financial instruments in this transaction and the assessments had a neutral impact on the rating.
Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entity, obligation or credit satisfactory for the purposes of issuing a rating.
Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning a rating is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for general disclosure on potential conflicts of interests.
Please see the ratings disclosure page on www.moodys.com for information on (A) MCO's major shareholders (above 5%) and for (B) further information regarding certain affiliations that may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities as well as (C) the names of entities that hold ratings from MIS that have also publicly reported to the SEC an ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%. A member of the board of directors of this rated entity may also be a member of the board of directors of a shareholder of Moody's Corporation; however, Moody's has not independently verified this matter.
Please see Moody's Rating Symbols and Definitions on the Rating Process page on www.moodys.com for further information on the meaning of each rating category and the definition of default and recovery.
Please see ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the last rating action and the rating history.
The date on which some ratings were first released goes back to a time before Moody's ratings were fully digitized and accurate data may not be available. Consequently, Moody's provides a date that it believes is the most reliable and accurate based on the information that is available to it. Please see the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information.
Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.
Edward Hou Associate Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody'sInvestors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653Amita Shrivastava VP - Senior Credit Officer Structured Finance Group JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 Releasing Office: Moody's Investors Service, Inc.250 Greenwich StreetNew York, NY 10007 U.S.A. JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653(C) 2012 Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and affiliates (collectively, "MOODY'S"). All rights reserved.
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