UBS: UBS Research Expresso 07. Juni 2017

Der UBS Research Espresso stellt für Sie ausgewählte Beiträge zu aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Themen zusammen. Heute im Fokus: Die kommende Zinsentscheidung der EZB, Optimismus in der US-Wirtschaft, Pessimismus für Unternehmen der Wirtschaft in UK, was vom Brexit zu erwarten ist und mehr....

Today's must read

UBS Evidence Lab: Will US Executive Optimism Translate to Action? (Stephen Caprio, CFA) Full Report
Our inaugural US Business Leader Survey highlights a divergence between healthy animal spirits and surprising downside risks. How should investors position?

ECB: What to expect next week (Reinhard Cluse) Full Report
We think the ECB will tighten its message next week to prepare the ground for a tapering decision in September. What are the implications for rates and FX?

Election Watch

Video: Beyond the politics, UK confidence is fading (John Wraith) Full Report 
While the current market focus is on Thursday's General Election, we note that in the background, confidence continues to soften. We think this will prove persistent, and expect growth to keep slowing over the coming quarters.

Confidence fading as UK growth outlook dims (John Wraith) Full Report 
The slow-motion loss of confidence and momentum we expect to afflict the UK economy is showing increasing evidence of materialising.

Lowering our 10y Gilt yield forecasts (John Wraith) Full Report
We have cut our Gilt yield forecasts by 30bp for both 2017 and 2018, and still expect material downside risks to the economy to crystallise in the coming months

UBS Evidence Lab: UK corporates post referendum – the smaller they are, the harder they fall (John Wraith) Full Report
Three months after the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU), UBS Evidence Lab conducted a survey to gauge sentiment and expectations among 400 UK corporates of differing sizes and across various sectors. Six months on, and with Article 50 having now been triggered, we summarise the findings of the survey and share our views on whether events in the interim have evolved as  expected.

UBS Evidence Lab: How do Eurozone firms react to Brexit and other political risk? (Reinhard Cluse) Full Report
Amongst various risks, Eurozone firms seem most concerned about Brexit and uncertainty about the policies of the new US administration. In contrast, and surprisingly, concern about the French elections seems to play less of a role.

UBS Evidence Lab: Views of the UK consumer in the wake of the EU referendum (John Wraith) Full Report
In this report, we have combined the responses to our survey with an analysis of the underlying sectors and economic factors referred to in the questions. This enables us to gauge whether  respondents' sentiment is justified by underlying fundamentals or is likely to prove too optimistic.

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