iShares: Wilkommen zurück, Volatilität

Die Volatilität ist zurück. Nach einem relativ ruhigen Jahr 2013 setzt die Volatilität im Januar und frühen Februar die Schwellenländer in Aufruhr und sorgt für Enttäuschen bei den US-Wirtschaftsberichten.

We remain neutral U.S. stocks, which we expect to push ahead this year, albeit more modestly than last year given high valuations, increasing rates and soft earnings reports so far in 2014. We foresee U.S. economic growth of 2.5% to 2.75%, up from the around 2% of the past couple of years. But the U.S. labor market remains bedeviled by structural problems as evident in January’s disappointing jobs report (see the chart to the right) and recent weak manufacturing data suggests that first quarter growth may disappoint. As such, we expect that the market will remain volatile in coming weeks. Still, we expect that the Fed will continue tapering at the current pace of $10 billion per meeting, though it’s likely to focus on keeping interest rates low until inflation is at, or even above, the Fed’s long-term goal of 2%.

We maintain our overweight view of the eurozone. From a valuation perspective, eurozone equities remain attractively priced relative to U.S. stocks, and the region’s growth recovery will likely continue on the back of improving confidence, reduced fiscal drag and easier financing conditions. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB)’s decision to leave its policies unchanged in February, ongoing disinflationary pressure (see the chart to the right) raises the likelihood for possible ECB actions in the near term, including a reduction in the ECB’s benchmark rate, a move to a negative interest rate on bank deposits with the ECB, and the initiation of an asset purchase program. Should the ECB adopt the latter policy, it would arguably be a net positive for European equities.

We remain neutral the United Kingdom, where valuations and an improving growth outlook continue to lend support to U.K. large cap stocks. Still, local economic data is looking strong, which is sparking fears over further central bank tightening and denting local sentiment.

We maintain our overweight view of Japan given Japanese stocks, attractive valuation relative to U.S. equities. In the past few weeks, Japanese stocks have come under pressure as investors fleeing emerging markets have pushed up the yen. While global risk sentiment remains a major source of risk for the yen and for Japanese stocks, diverging monetary policy paths in the United States and Japan will, in our view, continue to keep the downward pressure on the yen, supporting Japanese corporate earnings. Still, as inflation starts to rise thanks to Prime Minister Abe’s reflationary effort, wages are not yet keeping up, weakening consumer sentiment. If the local recovery is going to continue, wages will need to rise to compensate for rising Japanese inflation.

Der vollständige Ausblick im pdf-Dokument

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